El Niño's Impact on India's Energy Sector: A Global Comparison Reveals Vulnerability
El Nino to Hit India's Energy System Harder Than Anywhere Else
A new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has found that this year's El Nino will have a significant impact on India's energy system, with the country facing a dual challenge of reduced power generation and increased demand for power.
El Nino, a recurrent weather pattern that drives up global temperatures, is expected to cut India's power generation from turbines and hydropower due to falling winds and rainfall. At the same time, the warmer temperatures will drive up demand for power-hungry air conditioning, leading to an additional cooling demand of 10 TWh within a year - equivalent to a quarter of Delhi's annual electricity use.
The analysis models the impact of the forecast transition from La Nina to El Nino on India's power sector from July 2026 to June 2027. According to the report, the lost output from renewables and the increased demand for power could lead to a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh (terrawatt hour). The most likely outcome is a surge in coal-fired power, which would release an estimated 17 million tonnes of CO2.
