Oil Price Stabilizes Amid US-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty, Brent Holds at $95.

US-Iran War: Oil Prices Stabilize Amid Optimism on Peace Negotiations

Oil prices stabilized on Friday, June 5, after posting their first decline in a week, as optimism surrounding potential US-Iran peace negotiations offset concerns over lingering uncertainty around a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Crude oil prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) witnessed an upward movement, tracking global prices. MCX crude oil prices rose by over 1.04% to ₹8,934 per barrel.

On the international front, Brent crude hovered near $95 a barrel after slipping 2.8% on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded below $93 per barrel. The recent rally in crude oil prices has been driven by doubts over the pace and outcome of the negotiations, which tempered earlier expectations of a deal that could restore oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that handles roughly 20% of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas trade during peacetime.

Despite the recent rally, oil futures remain about 20% below their early-April levels, when Washington and Tehran agreed to a ceasefire that brought an end to more than five weeks of conflict. According to a Bloomberg report, there has been little indication of a breakthrough in discussions between Tehran and Washington, with Israel's ongoing military operations in Lebanon emerging as a significant obstacle.

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US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing positively, even as Iran-backed Hezbollah rejected a US-mediated ceasefire proposal between Israel and Lebanon. Trump remarked that "they didn't reject me" and asserted that the group had contacted US officials to discuss ending hostilities. Earlier on Thursday, Trump wrote on social media that he was "right in the middle of my final negotiations to end the war with the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Commenting on the technical outlook, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that MCX crude oil is attempting a technical bounce near the lower end of the ascending trendline, which continues to provide important structural support, even as MACD indicates weakening bearish momentum. Immediate resistance stands at ₹9,200–₹9,250; a sustained move above this zone could trigger a recovery toward ₹9,300–₹9,345. On the downside, ₹9,050–₹8,970 acts as immediate support; a break below this area could extend the decline toward ₹8,900–₹8,830. The near-term bias remains cautious, with direction largely driven by ongoing geopolitical developments.