Nifty Surges 130 Points Amid Easing Tensions, Oil Price Drop

Indian Equities Poised for Positive Start on Thursday

The Indian equity market is expected to open higher on Thursday, buoyed by easing crude oil prices, strong gains across global equity markets, and improving optimism around a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal. The GIFT Nifty was trading at 23,803 in early morning trade, up 138 points or 0.58 percent, indicating a firm start for Indian equity benchmark indices.

This positive indication comes after Indian markets ended marginally higher on Wednesday following a sharp recovery from deep morning losses. The Sensex rose 117.54 points or 0.16 percent to close at 75,318.39, while the Nifty gained 41 points or 0.17 percent to settle at 23,659. Reliance Industries, energy, auto, and capital goods stocks led the recovery, while broader markets outperformed benchmark indices.

Global Markets Rebound

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Global sentiment improved sharply overnight after Wall Street rebounded from a three-day selloff, led by gains in technology and chip stocks ahead of Nvidia's quarterly results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 645.47 points or 1.31 percent to 50,009.35, the S&P 500 climbed 1.08 percent to 7,432.97, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.55 percent to 26,270.36.

Global Market Performance Comparison

Asian equities also rebounded strongly on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.2 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI surged more than 4 percent after Samsung Electronics workers suspended a planned strike and Nvidia posted stronger-than-expected results. Japan's Nikkei jumped 1.9 percent, while Australian equities gained 1.5 percent.

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Oil Prices Rebound

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly on Thursday after plunging more than 5.6 percent in the previous session on hopes of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Brent crude futures rose 0.77 percent to $105.83 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude traded near $99.2 per barrel. Oil prices had corrected sharply on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were in their final stages, though he also warned of further attacks if Tehran failed to agree to a deal.

Indian markets may also take comfort from the sharp fall in crude prices seen in the previous session, especially after the rupee hit a fresh record low of 96.96 against the U.S. dollar in Wednesday's trade amid elevated oil prices.

However, institutional flows remained mixed. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Indian equities worth Rs 1,597 crore on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net buyers to the tune of Rs 1,968 crore.

Market Outlook

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said Indian markets are expected to open with a positive undertone, supported by the sharp correction in crude oil prices and improving optimism around ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations. He said softer crude prices could help ease inflationary pressures, reduce import-related stress, and improve the outlook for corporate margins in India.

However, Ponmudi cautioned that uncertainty around the final outcome of negotiations, persistent FII selling, and rupee weakness could continue to limit aggressive upside momentum.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, Ponmudi said Nifty remains cautiously positive, with 23,400 acting as key support and 23,800 emerging as the immediate hurdle. The Bank Nifty also maintains a cautiously positive undertone, though resistance near the 54,300-54,500 zone could cap gains.