US-Iran Tensions, Oil Prices, and Q4 Earnings: Key Market Developments Over Weekend

Indian Stock Market Expected to Open Higher on Monday Amid Global Market Cues

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Monday following mixed cues from global markets amid cautiousness over the escalation of the US-Iran tensions in the Middle East. Asian markets traded mixed, while the US stock futures declined on uncertainty over the US-Iran peace talks as tensions rose.

Indian Market Update

On Friday, the Indian stock market ended with strong gains, extending its rally for the second consecutive week. The Sensex jumped 504.86 points, or 0.65%, to close at 78,493.54, while the Nifty 50 settled 156.80 points, or 0.65%, higher at 24,353.55. Traders are advised to continue with a positive yet cautious stance, focusing on sectors and themes showing strong traction with volumes, while avoiding averaging in laggard stocks.

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Global Market Cues

US Market Update

US stock futures slipped on Monday after escalation in US-Iran tensions over the weekend and an ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 452 points, or 0.9%, while S&P 500 futures lost 0.8% and Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 0.6%. On Friday, the US stock market ended higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rallying to their third record close in a row.

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Key Performers

Nvidia stock price rose 1.68%, Apple share price gained 2.59%, while Tesla stock price rallied 3.01%. Royal Caribbean shares jumped 7.3%, Carnival share price surged 7%, while Netflix stock price tumbled 9.7% and Alcoa shares declined 6.8%.

US-Iran Tensions Escalate

US-Iran tensions escalated over the weekend after the US forcibly seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to get around a naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran's top military command vowed to retaliate. Meanwhile, AFP reported quoting Iranian state media that Iran was not currently planning to attend talks with the US, after President Donald Trump ordered US negotiators to travel to Pakistan on Monday, just days before a ceasefire in the Middle East expires.

China Interest Rates

The People's Bank of China kept the loan prime rate, or LPR, unchanged for an 11th straight month. The one-year LPR was kept at 3.0% while the five-year LPR, a reference for mortgage rates, was unchanged at 3.5%.

HDFC Bank Q4 Results

HDFC Bank reported Q4FY26 standalone net profit growth of 9.11% YoY at ₹19,221.05 crore. Net Interest Income (NII) increased 3.8% YoY to ₹33,281.5 crore. Asset quality improved sequentially. HDFC Bank's board also recommended a final dividend of ₹13 per equity share.

ICICI Bank Q4 Results

ICICI Bank' Q4 net profit rose 8.5% YoY to ₹13,701.68 crore, and NIII increased 8.4% to ₹22,979 crore. Net interest margin (NIM) came in at 4.32%.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices jumped on rising US-Iran tensions in the Middle East, and as Iran re-imposed its de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil price rallied 5.47% to $95.32 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures surged 6.17% to $89.02 a barrel.

Gold Rate Today

Gold prices fell more than 1% as the dollar firmed and US-Iran peace talks uncertainty pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation fears. Spot gold price fell 1.4% to $4,762.09 per ounce, while US gold futures for June delivery dropped 2% to $4,781.90. Spot silver price declined 1.7% to $79.42 per ounce.

Dollar

The US dollar firmed to its highest level in a week against major currencies on renewed US-Iran tensions, Reuters reported. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six peers, was at 98.38. The euro slipped 0.14% to $1.1746 and sterling fell 0.29% to $1.3479. The yen weakened to 159.06 per dollar.