US-Iran Relations and Global Markets: Key Developments Ahead of April 15 Trading Session

Nifty 50 Recovers from Day's Low, Closes with 0.86 Percent Loss

The Nifty 50 recovered sharply from the day's low and closed with a 0.86 percent loss on April 13, following the breakdown of peace talks on Sunday. Despite the setback, the near-term technical setup remains healthy, as the index continues to hold above short-term moving averages, supported by a bullish crossover in momentum indicators.

The index's ability to bounce back from the day's low has increased hopes that US-Iran peace talks could resume, despite the US blockade of Iranian ports. If the index continues to recover, the 24,000-24,100 zone is expected to act as a crucial hurdle for an upmove towards 24,200-24,300 (near the 50-day EMA and 50 percent Fibonacci retracement). On the downside, support is placed at 23,500, according to experts.

Key Levels for Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty

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The Nifty 50 formed a long bullish candle on the daily charts and reclaimed the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement (of the correction from the February high to the April low), indicating the formation of a counterattack bullish pattern. The 10- and 20-day EMAs maintained their upward trajectory, though the index remains below the medium-term (50-day EMA) and long-term moving averages (100- and 200-day EMAs). The MACD, with a bullish crossover, has been gradually inching towards the zero line, with a rising green bar on the histogram, while the RSI stayed above the reference line, though it inclined moderately downward.

The Bank Nifty also saw similar action, recouping 2.3 percent of losses from the day's low and closing 0.55 percent lower on Monday, forming a long bullish candle on the daily timeframe. The index defended the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement (of the rally from the April 2 low to the April 10 high), as well as the 20-day EMA. Short-term moving averages continued to trend upward, while medium- and long-term moving averages appear to be flattening after their prior downtrend.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Call Options Data

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The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 24,500 strike (with 32.27 lakh contracts) for the Nifty 50, while the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 55,000 strike (with 6.06 lakh contracts) for the Bank Nifty. These levels can act as key resistance levels for the indices in the short term.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Put Options Data

The maximum Put open interest was seen at the 23,500 strike (with 25.14 lakh contracts) for the Nifty 50, while the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 55,000 strike (with 6.94 lakh contracts) for the Bank Nifty. These levels can act as key support levels for the indices in the short term.

Funds Flow and Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR) was unchanged at 1.13 on April 13, compared to the previous session. The increasing PCR indicates that traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates a firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market.

India VIX

India VIX surged 8.75 percent to the 20.5 level, signalling some discomfort for bulls. However, it remained below short-term moving averages for the fourth consecutive session and hovered around the 50-day EMA.

Technical Analysis

A long build-up was seen in 24 stocks, indicating a build-up of long positions. In contrast, 85 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding. Additionally, 84 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

High Delivery Trades and Stocks Under F&O Ban

Stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades include those with investing (as opposed to trading) interest. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has banned derivative contracts for companies where the market-wide position limit is crossed.

Stocks added to F&O ban: Nil Stocks retained in F&O ban: SAIL, Sammaan Capital Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil