Southwest Monsoon Expected to Reach Kerala in 2-3 Days: India Meteorological Department

Southwest Monsoon Expected to Arrive in Kerala Within Two to Three Days

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala within the next two to three days. This comes after the department's earlier prediction on May 26, which was delayed and revised to the following week on May 29.

Typically, the southwest monsoon season begins around June 1. The IMD has predicted that the advance of the monsoon can also take place in some more parts of southwest, west-central, east-central, and northeast Bay of Bengal, and remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal during the period.

The IMD had issued a revised forecast last week stating that the season's rainfall would be below normal. India is expected to receive 90 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) this year. The LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, such as a month or season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years.

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The IMD classifies a monsoon season as "deficient" if it sees less than 90 per cent of the LPA rainfall. One reason behind the below-normal rainfall this year could be the emergence of El Nino conditions, which lead to less rain during monsoon in India. The IMD has stated that currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region.

El Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September, the IMD added.