Nifty Records Largest Weekly Decline Since June 2022, Near Death Cross Amid Iran Tensions, Bears Target 22,700
Nifty 50 Sees Largest Weekly Loss Since June 2022
The Nifty 50 benchmark index tumbled over 2% on March 13, marking its third consecutive session of decline. This led to the index's largest weekly loss since June 2022, with a 5.31% plunge.
Geopolitical Tensions and Macroeconomic Shocks
Deepening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept Brent crude oil prices around $100 a barrel, leading to macroeconomic shocks and margin-related technical pressures. This, in turn, affected the Nifty 50, with momentum and technical indicators deteriorating further.
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Technical Analysis Indicators
The 50-day EMA moved closer to the 200-day EMA, increasing the possibility of a death cross, a signal of strong bearish strength. The immediate support for the Nifty 50 is placed at 23,000, below which 22,700 (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high) is the level to watch.
Index Performance
The Nifty 50 saw another gap-down opening, falling over 175 points at the start. The index maintained weakness as the day progressed and finished Friday's session at 23,151 (the lowest closing level since April 11, 2025), down 488 points (2.06%). This is the biggest single-day fall since April 3, 2025.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum indicators remain strongly negative, with the RSI falling below 25, indicating sharp bearish momentum. A rising ADX highlights strengthening downside trend pressure.
Expert Analysis
According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, though the Nifty 50 is placed near support levels, there is still no confirmation of any bottom reversal pattern forming. This is not a good sign, and hence the underlying trend of the market remains sharply down.
Bank Nifty
The banking index consistently underperformed the benchmark index Nifty 50, sinking 1,343 points (2.44%) to 53,758, the lowest closing level since September 2, 2025. The Bank Nifty formed a long bearish candlestick on both the daily and weekly charts, reflecting strong selling pressure.
Support and Resistance Levels
The immediate support for the Nifty 50 is placed at 23,000, with 22,700 as the level to watch. Resistance is seen near 23,500. For the Bank Nifty, the immediate support is placed at 53,500, followed by 53,000 as the crucial support, while resistance is seen near 55,000.
Investor Takeaway
Investors should be cautious and consider hedging their portfolios as the Nifty 50 is at risk of a significant decline.
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