Nifty Maintains Positive Trend, Eyes Higher Levels as Long as 23,500 Supports

Market Recovery in Focus as Nifty 50 Closes 0.9 Percent Lower

The Nifty 50 showed a smart recovery after a sharp gap-down opening on April 13, closing off the day's low with a 0.9 percent loss, marking a negative start to the week following a spike in oil prices. The breakdown of US–Iran peace talks and the announcement of a US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude prices above $100 a barrel.

Despite the adverse market sentiment, the technical setup remains healthy, with the Nifty 50 holding above the 10- and 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), both of which are maintaining an upward trajectory. However, the index still sustains below medium- and long-term moving averages.

The Nifty 50 defended 23,780, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the fall from the February high to the April low. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) inclined upward toward the zero line with further expansion in the red bar on the histogram, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed well above the signal line. These indicators suggest a mixed but cautiously positive momentum.

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Key Support and Resistance Levels

According to experts, as long as the Nifty 50 defends the 23,550–23,500 zone (20- and 10-day EMAs), a gradual upmove toward 24,000–24,100, followed by 24,200–24,300, cannot be ruled out in the upcoming sessions. However, a decisive fall below this zone could open room for renewed selling pressure.

Market Performance

The benchmark Nifty 50 opened 461 points lower on Monday, the weekly F&O expiry session, and corrected up to 23,556 but could not sustain there for long. It finished off the day's low at 23,843, down 208 points (0.86 percent).

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A long green candle was formed on the daily chart at the lows, indicating a counterattack-type bullish pattern. After a series of bearish lower top and bottom formations in the recent past, the Nifty registering a new higher low at 23,555 could be a sigh of relief for bulls to sustain the recent bounce-back.

Expert Analysis

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said that Monday's weakness has not damaged the underlying near-term uptrend status of the market. He expects further upside in the near term, with immediate resistance at 24,100.

Nilesh Jain, VP – Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse, also believes the broader structure remains positive, supporting a buy-on-decline strategy as long as the index holds above 23,270. A decisive move above 24,000 could trigger short covering, potentially driving the index towards the 24,200–24,400 zone.

Options Data

The weekly options data indicates that the Nifty 50 is expected to remain in a broad range of 23,500–24,500 in the short term. The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 24,500 strike, followed by the 24,000 and 24,300 strikes, while the 23,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 23,800 and 23,700 strikes.

India VIX

The India VIX, the fear index, rebounded 8.75 percent to move above the 20 zone at 20.5 and stayed above medium- and long-term moving averages, signaling discomfort for bulls. Sustaining below the 20 level is necessary for bulls to regain comfort.

Market Holiday

The market will remain shut on April 14 for Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti.

Bank Nifty

The banking index also opened sharply lower and dropped well below the 55,000 zone but immediately started recouping losses as the day progressed. The Bank Nifty trimmed nearly 1,250 points of losses before closing at 55,605, down 308 points (0.55 percent).

On the daily charts, the index formed a long green candle after defending not only the 20-day EMA (54,450) but also the previous day's low. Despite the correction, the index sustained above the 10- and 20-day EMAs, with both moving averages heading north. Further, the medium- and long-term moving averages have started flattening out after heading south during the recent sharp correction.

Expert Analysis

Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said that the 55,900–56,000 zone is expected to act as a key resistance area. A sustained move above 56,000 could extend the pullback rally towards 56,500, followed by 57,200 in the short term. On the downside, the 55,100–55,000 zone will remain a crucial support for the index.