Nifty Indicates Weak Start; Sensex and Nifty Projected to Open Lower Amid Oil Price Surge and Stalled Iran Diplomatic Talks

Indian Equity Markets Expected to Open on a Subdued Note

The Indian equity markets are likely to open on a subdued note on Tuesday, with GIFT Nifty trading at 23,999, down 94 points or 0.39 percent, indicating a negative start for the benchmark indices. This comes after a relief rally in Sensex and Nifty in the previous session, as elevated crude oil prices and stalled US-Iran negotiations continue to weigh on sentiment today.

Global Cues Remain Mixed

Asian markets were hovering near record highs but traded cautiously, with Japan's Nikkei slipping after hitting a fresh peak. Broader regional indices remained flat to marginally lower. US markets ended largely flat overnight, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting modest gains as investors remained cautious ahead of a packed week of earnings, economic data, and central bank decisions.

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Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise

The key overhang for markets remains crude oil, with Brent crude extending its rally for a seventh straight session, trading near $108-109 per barrel. Progress on US-Iran negotiations remains elusive and the Strait of Hormuz continues to face disruptions, raising concerns over inflation, currency stability, and external balances, particularly for import-dependent economies like India.

FIIs Continue to Sell Indian Equities

Back home, sentiment is expected to remain fragile despite Monday's rebound, when the Sensex and Nifty gained around 0.8 percent each. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling streak for a sixth consecutive session, offloading equities worth over Rs 1,100 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided support through sustained buying.

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Market Volatility Expected to Continue

Analysts expect markets to remain volatile and largely driven by global developments, particularly around geopolitical tensions and energy markets. The ongoing Q4 earnings season is also likely to drive stock-specific action, leading to sectoral divergence.

Technical View

From a technical perspective, the Nifty is seen trading in a range-bound zone near 24,000-24,100, with resistance around 24,300-24,400 and immediate support near 23,900, said analysts. A sustained move beyond these levels will be key in determining the next directional trend for the market.

| Comparison of Asian Markets | | --- | --- | | Nikkei (Japan) | Flat to marginally lower | | Broader regional indices | Flat to marginally lower | | S&P 500 (US) | Modest gains | | Nasdaq (US) | Modest gains |