Nifty Falls 150 Points Amid Rising Oil Prices and Middle East Tensions

Indian Equity Benchmarks Set for Negative Start Amid Global Concerns

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to open sharply lower on Monday, tracking weakness across Asian markets and renewed concerns over elevated crude oil prices amid escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The GIFT Nifty was trading at 23,558 in early morning trade, down 150 points or 0.63 percent, indicating a negative start for Indian equity benchmarks.

The weak indication comes after the Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Friday, snapping a two-day gaining streak amid weakness in metal, PSU bank, oil-linked and realty stocks. The Sensex had declined 160.73 points or 0.21 percent to close at 75,237.99, while the Nifty slipped 46.10 points or 0.19 percent to settle at 23,643.50. The rupee also weakened sharply and hit a record intraday low of 96.14 against the U.S. dollar during Friday's session.

Global Market Summary

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Global sentiment remained under pressure on Monday as renewed drone attacks in the Gulf and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz fuelled fresh concerns over global energy supplies and inflation. Asian equities declined broadly, with the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan falling 0.9 percent.

Crude oil prices climbed sharply again on Monday as geopolitical tensions intensified and there was little progress on reopening the key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 1.9 percent to above $111 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude surged 2.3 percent to nearly $108 per barrel. Oil prices had already gained nearly 8 percent last week amid concerns that prolonged disruptions in Gulf shipping could tighten global supplies and worsen inflationary pressures.

Investor sentiment also remained cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the "clock is ticking" for Iran to strike a deal, reinforcing fears of a prolonged standoff in the Middle East.

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Indian Market Outlook

Apart from oil, markets may also monitor the impact of India's latest move to curb silver imports in nearly all forms with immediate effect, aimed at easing pressure on the rupee and controlling import-related outflows. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that Indian markets are likely to remain cautious and highly news-driven amid renewed geopolitical rhetoric from the U.S. and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.

He added that elevated crude prices remain a major macro concern for India due to their impact on inflation, import costs, and rupee stability. Ponmudi also noted that FIIs have turned intermittent buyers after prolonged selling pressure, although markets would require sustained foreign inflows to improve broader confidence and support recovery momentum.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Analysis

Ponmudi said Nifty remains in a cautious recovery phase, with 23,500-23,400 acting as key support and 23,900-24,000 emerging as the immediate resistance zone. He added that Bank Nifty continues to trade with a mildly negative undertone, with immediate resistance near the 54,300-54,500 zone, and support in the 53,600-53,500 range.