Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty May Continue Uptrend on Monthly F&O Expiry

Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Outlook: Experts Predict Uptrend, but Sustainability Key

The Nifty 50 may extend its uptrend on the monthly Futures & Options expiry day, given the strong rebound while defending the previous day's low and reclaiming short-term moving averages, along with an easing India VIX. However, the sustainability of this uptrend is key, and the index may face resistance in the 24,200-24,300 zone.

Nifty 50 Outlook

According to experts, the Nifty 50 is likely to face resistance in the 24,200-24,300 zone, with a decisive move above it potentially opening the door for 24,500-24,600. On the downside, 24,000-23,950 is likely to be the immediate support zone. The Bank Nifty needs to deliver a strong breakout above 56,700 for a move towards 57,000-57,500.

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April 27 Market Performance

On April 27, the Nifty 50 rose 195 points (0.81%) to 24,093, while the Bank Nifty climbed 175 points (0.31%) to 56,264, supported by strong market breadth. A total of 2,359 shares advanced against 637 declining shares on the National Stock Exchange.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities, notes that the Nifty has closed well above the 24,000 level, ending its three-day losing streak. Now, 24,000 is a critical immediate support level, as it has the highest Put base from a monthly expiry perspective. As long as this level holds, the short-term trend remains positive.

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Trading Strategy

Jay Thakkar recommends buying Nifty Futures at the current market price of 24,092 and adding on dips near 23,700, with a stop-loss below 23,500, targeting 24,500 and 25,000.

Bank Nifty Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar also notes that Bank Nifty closed firmly in positive territory in the last session, above the 56,000 level, which has proven to be a strong support for the April series. As long as the index trades above this level, the monthly settlement is likely to remain within the 56,000-57,000 range.

Trading Strategy

Jay Thakkar recommends buying Bank Nifty Futures at the current market price of 56,200 and adding on dips near 55,000, with a stop-loss below 53,000, targeting 58,000 and 60,000.

Short-Term Outlook

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi, notes that the Nifty 50 has witnessed a negative crossover on the DMI indicator, and Stochastics has also given a negative crossover after remaining in the overbought zone. On the hourly chart, today's rally appears more like a corrective bounce rather than the start of a fresh uptrend.

Trading Strategy

Jigar S Patel recommends selling Nifty Futures in the 24,200-24,300 zone, with a stop-loss at 24,450, targeting 23,850.

Bank Nifty Short-Term Outlook

Jigar S Patel notes that Bank Nifty has shown a bearish crossover on the DMI indicator, and Stochastics has turned negative after remaining in the overbought zone. On the hourly timeframe, today's rise appears to be a relief rally rather than the start of a fresh uptrend.

Trading Strategy

Jigar S Patel recommends selling Bank Nifty Futures in the 56,750-56,650 zone, with a stop-loss at 57,250, targeting 55,700.

Long-Term Outlook

Somil Mehta, Head of Retail Research at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, notes that the Nifty index has seen a sharp upmove and retraced nearly 61.8% of the entire decline between February and April. On the upside, 24,600-24,750 is a major resistance zone, while on the downside, 23,500 is a strong support level.

Trading Strategy

Somil Mehta recommends buying Nifty Futures at the current market price or on dips, with a stop-loss at 23,800, targeting 24,600-24,750.

Bank Nifty Long-Term Outlook

Somil Mehta notes that the Bank Nifty index retraced 61.8% of the February-April decline and faced selling pressure at those levels. On the downside, the April 24 low of 55,750 will act as immediate support.

Trading Strategy

Somil Mehta recommends buying Bank Nifty Futures at the current market price or on dips, with a stop-loss at 55,750, targeting 57,450-57,800.