Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Face Key Support Levels Amid US-Iran Tensions

Market Outlook: Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty

The Indian stock market witnessed a strong rally last week, with the Nifty 50 crossing the psychological 24,000 zone ahead of peace talks between the US and Iran. However, the failed agreement on Sunday resulted in a lack of sustainability, making it crucial for the Nifty 50 to hold above 24,000 to move towards the 24,300–24,400 levels in the upcoming sessions.

Key Statistics

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On April 10, the Nifty 50 soared 276 points (1.16 percent) to 24,051, while the Bank Nifty jumped 1,091 points (1.99 percent) to 55,913, with market breadth favoring bulls. About 2,479 shares advanced against 491 declining shares on the National Stock Exchange.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

According to Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One, the benchmark Nifty 50 delivered an impressive recovery, advancing nearly 6% to reclaim the 24,000 level. This sharp rebound has effectively offset losses incurred over the previous four weeks, highlighting renewed buying interest. The technical structure has turned extremely bullish, with the benchmark index moving above the 20-DEMA after a prolonged corrective phase.

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Strategy

Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 23,700, with a stop-loss at 23,450, and book profits near 24,400–24,600.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

The Bank Nifty index witnessed a sharp recovery during last week, driven primarily by improved global sentiment following the US–Iran ceasefire. The index recorded an impressive weekly gain of approximately 8.5%, reflecting strong momentum in banking stocks. According to Osho Krishan, the index has exhibited a notable improvement in its technical structure, marked by a strong upward surge that has propelled it above the 20-DEMA and closer to the 50-DEMA after an extended corrective phase.

Strategy

Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 55,500–55,200 for a potential target of 57,000–57,200, with a stop-loss at 54,600.

Market Outlook

According to Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities, the Nifty index staged a robust rebound last week, with the index holding its medium-term upward-sloping trendline (since June 2024) and rebounding sharply. The index is now holding above the psychological 24,000 mark, and a sustained move above this level could propel the Nifty towards 24,415 (upper band of the March 9 bearish gap) and 24,750 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the February–March 26 decline).

Strategy

Buy Nifty Futures around 23,950, with a stop-loss at 23,800, targeting 24,250–24,350.

Bank Nifty Outlook

According to Rajesh Palviya, the Bank Nifty formed a strong bullish candle, marking a higher high–higher low formation and closing above the previous week’s high—clearly signalling a positive bias. Technically, a decisive move above 56,750 could extend the rally towards 57,250–57,700 levels.

Strategy

Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 55,750, with a stop-loss at 55,500, targeting 56,300–56,600.

Market Analysis

According to Anshul Jain, Technical Analyst at Lakshmishree Investments, the recent price action in the Nifty index reflects a nuanced balance between optimism and caution. The emergence of a bullish morning star-like pattern (not a classical one), reinforced by a strong marubozu candle, indicates improving sentiment and a degree of control by buyers.

Strategy

Buy Nifty Futures on dips towards 23,850 for a target of 24,200, with a stop-loss below 23,800.

Bank Nifty Analysis

According to Anshul Jain, the Bank Nifty’s recent weekly structure reflects a similar undertone of cautious optimism. The formation of a morning star-like pattern (not a classical one), accompanied by a strong bullish marubozu candle, suggests a shift in sentiment and a return of buying interest.

Strategy

Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 55,500, with a stop-loss below 55,300, for a target of 56,754.