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Reserve Bank of India Set to Announce June Monetary Policy Review

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled to announce the outcome of its June monetary policy review on Friday, June 5, with markets closely watching for cues on interest rates, inflation, and economic growth amid rising crude oil prices and a weakening rupee.

The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, began its three-day meeting on June 3 and will unveil its decision at 10 am on June 5. The RBI's bi-monthly MPC meeting is scheduled from June 3 to June 5, 2026, with the policy decision to be announced at 10 am on Friday, June 5, followed by Governor Sanjay Malhotra's press conference at 12 pm.

In its previous policy review in April, the MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent while retaining its neutral policy stance. The Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate were also left unchanged at 5 per cent and 5.5 per cent, respectively.

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The RBI Governor's policy statement will be streamed live on the RBI's official YouTube channel from 10 am. The subsequent media briefing at noon will also be available on the same platform and covered by major business news networks.

At the April policy review, the central bank projected India's GDP growth at 6.9 per cent for FY27, while estimating growth for FY26 at 7.6 per cent. The RBI also raised its retail inflation forecast for FY27 to 4.6 per cent from 4.2 per cent earlier.

The June policy meeting comes against the backdrop of escalating tensions in West Asia, which have pushed global crude oil prices higher and intensified pressure on the Indian rupee. The rupee has fallen to record lows since the conflict erupted earlier this year, while higher energy costs have raised concerns about imported inflation in the world's third-largest oil-importing economy.

A Moneycontrol poll of 16 economists, fixed-income heads, and treasury chiefs found that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged at this week's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, despite growing inflationary risks, a weakening rupee, and elevated Brent crude oil prices.

Read also: Indian Defence Stocks Show Resilience Amid Market Weakness

ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar has warned that retail inflation could climb towards 5 per cent in June as higher fuel prices gradually pass through to consumers. At the same time, several economists believe the RBI may wait for more clarity on whether the inflationary impact proves temporary or persistent before considering any policy action.

The June policy review is being closely tracked by investors, borrowers, and businesses as it could offer fresh guidance on the RBI's assessment of inflation, growth, and currency stability. While relatively moderate inflation has so far allowed the central bank to maintain its current policy settings, persistent pressure from higher crude prices and rupee weakness may shape the RBI's outlook in the months ahead. Market participants will be looking for any signals on the future trajectory of interest rates and the central bank's response to emerging economic risks.

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