LNG Prices Projected to Rise Amid Escalating Iran Conflict

West Asian Tensions Disrupt Energy Trade Flows

Key Developments:

• Growing tensions in West Asia are affecting energy trade flows, with ripple effects already observed in Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets.
• India's LNG imports are expected to continue, but shipments may be rerouted through longer passages, increasing logistics and insurance costs.

Market Impact:

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• Most of India's LNG intake is locked into long-term contracts, limiting flexibility in the short term.
• Temporary delays are possible, but long-term disruption in LNG availability is not anticipated.

Price Disruptions:

• Asian LNG prices have surged to around $15 per million British thermal units (mmBTU) following recent disruptions.
• This is sharply above Qatar's typical supply rate of $6–8 per mmBTU.

Potential Opportunities:

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• If prices sustain above $10 per mmBTU, sourcing from the United States or Norway becomes economically viable, opening the door to meaningful supply diversification.