Iran Focus Shifts to Drone Warfare Amid Air Defence Neglect

Iran's Military Imports Shift Reflects Evolving Priorities

Overview In the face of relentless strikes by Israeli and American forces, Iran's air-defence systems have been left vulnerable. However, the country has invested in low-cost drones, such as the Shahed attack drone, which costs as little as $20,000 per unit.

Import Trends Our analysis of Iran's military imports reveals a significant shift in priorities over the past two decades. Between 2007-2012 and 2019-2024, the proportion of air-defence systems in Iran's import basket fell from 4.8% to about 4.1%. In contrast, imported aircraft have remained consistently prominent, accounting for 44% of imports in both periods.

Key Shifts Other notable trends include:

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• Missiles have increased their share of imports, rising from 11% in 2007-2012 to 16% in 2019-2024, reflecting growing interest in stand-off strike capability.
• Critical subsystems, such as sensors and engines, have seen modest declines as a proportion of total imports, suggesting constrained access or a strategic pivot towards indigenisation.

Indigenisation and Export Profile Iran has become self-sufficient in many areas, evident in its export profile. While a relatively small player in global weapons exports, Iran has diversified its basket over the years, indicating a push towards specialisation in certain categories. The country is now supplying a range of countries, including Russia, Venezuela, Belarus, Tajikistan, and Ethiopia, with low-cost Shahed drones.