Iran Crisis Risks Most Significant Disruption to Global Gas Markets Since 2022

Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Gas Markets

A widening conflict in the Middle East is poised to cause significant disruptions to gas markets, potentially rivaling the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The region is a crucial supply route, with 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy.

Key Statistics:

• 20% of LNG exports travel through the Strait of Hormuz
• 82.2 million tons of LNG were exported by Qatar in 2025
• Qatar is the world's second-largest LNG exporter
• 4/5 of Qatar's LNG exports were delivered to Asian buyers in 2025
• China is the largest purchaser of Qatar's LNG, taking almost 1/3 of its imports
• India is the second-largest importer of Qatar's LNG

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LNG trade through the Strait of Hormuz has almost halted, according to ship-tracking data. Asian buyers are calling suppliers to check if alternative cargoes are available. Egypt is trying to bring forward shipments after supplier Israel shuttered some fields.

Impact on LNG Prices:

• Shipments to Asia and Europe must pass through the Strait of Hormuz
• At least 11 LNG tankers have paused voyages to avoid the waterway
• Smaller exporter UAE also sends its LNG exports through the Strait
• Qatar's LNG production unit at the Ras Laffan complex underwent planned maintenance as of last week, contributing to lower flows

Risks to LNG Output:

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• LNG output requires steady exports to move fuel through the facility
• Disruptions to shipping will grow rapidly if the conflict drags on
• QatarEnergy has not delayed any shipments to its buyers, but traders in China, India, and Japan are bracing for higher prices

Long-term Implications:

• Long-term LNG contracts are usually linked to crude benchmarks, so an increase in Brent oil will also make gas more expensive for Asian consumers
• Turkey imports pipeline gas from Iran and may be forced to buy more LNG if key flows are curtailed, adding upward pressure to prices