Indian Stock Market Outlook: April 2 Post Trump's Speech on US-Iran Tensions

Indian Stock Market Benchmark Indices Expected to Open Lower Amid US-Iran War Concerns

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Thursday due to concerns over the prolonged US-Iran war in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump warned that the US forces will hit Iran very hard in the next 2-3 weeks, but said they will 'finish the job' in Iran soon as 'core strategic objectives are nearing completion.'

The trends on Gift Nifty indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index, trading around 22,356 level, a discount of nearly 444 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. On Wednesday, the Indian stock market rallied, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 22,600 level. The Sensex jumped 1,186.77 points, or 1.65%, to close at 73,134.32, while the Nifty 50 settled 348.00 points, or 1.56%, higher at 22,679.40.

Technical Analysis of Sensex and Nifty 50

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According to Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, Sensex has shown a sharp pullback from lower levels, suggesting emergence of demand near key support zones. Key technical levels indicate that support for Sensex is placed in the 72,400 – 72,500 zone, which may act as a crucial demand area, while resistance is seen around 73,900 – 74,000, where any further upside could face supply and profit-booking pressure.

Nifty Options Data

Significant call writing was observed at the 22,800 strike, followed by the 22,900 strike. Notable writing activity was seen at the 22,700 and 22,500 strike levels.

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Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market noted that the Nifty 50 index is attempting a 'relief rally' from oversold conditions. The immediate support zone for Nifty 50 22,500 – 22,400 will be watched. As long as Nifty 50 stays above 22,500, the pullback move could extend further. A break below 22,300 would signal a return to the bearish trend.

Bank Nifty Prediction

Bank Nifty index ended 1,173.30 points, or 2.33%, higher at 51,448.65 on Wednesday, forming a small-bodied doji candle on the daily chart with wicks on both ends, indicating intraday indecision. For Bank Nifty, the immediate support is placed in the 51,100 – 51,000 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 50,800, followed by 50,500 in the short term.

According to Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, the Bank Nifty index continues to trade below its short-term moving averages but is attempting to move toward the 10 SMA. The index has rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band, reflecting a shift from aggressive selling toward a more balanced phase, where the Bank Nifty index is attempting to stabilise. The RSI is placed near 34, recovering from oversold levels, though it remains in the lower range.