IKIGAI Founder Harit Tibrewal on Portfolio Allocation Strategy Amid Market Volatility

Investment Experts See Opportunity in India Amid Global Uncertainty

Pankaj Tibrewal, Founder of Ikigai Asset Managers, has taken a bold stance by investing 99.5% of his assets in the first week of April 2026, marking one of the most aggressive allocations in his career. This move comes despite heightened geopolitical tensions and continued foreign outflows from Indian equities.

Tibrewal's aggressive positioning is a departure from the past, with the first instance being in March 2020. At the Groww India Investor Event 2026, he emphasized that the current environment is not comparable to the disinflationary cycle that drove markets over the last decade. He believes that investors are underpricing the implications of structurally higher inflation and supply-chain fragmentation.

According to Tibrewal, the world changed structurally after late February, with a shift towards an inflationary situation that is expected to persist in the foreseeable future. He expects nominal GDP growth to increase from 8.5% to 11%, driving double-digit topline growth for corporate India after three years of single-digit expansion.

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Tibrewal pointed to the Morbi ceramic tile industry, where around 600 of 750 plants shut down. Listed organised players operating outside Morbi reported 100% profit growth and gained significant market share. Similar trends are visible in the plywood/good panel industry, where organised companies are gaining share from the unorganised segment after a long gap.

To find bargains when earnings are under pressure, Tibrewal uses a practical approach: when businesses go through cycles, he looks for companies with intact balance sheets and business models where cash flow from operations or free cash flows starts hitting 5.5 to 6%. He cited past examples in PSU banks (2020-21), road EPC companies, and commodity firms.

Vikas Khemani, another expert, notes that markets bottomed when the Iran conflict intensified, consistent with patterns seen during COVID and previous shocks. However, he advises that "whenever there is such peak pessimism, those are the best opportunities to invest."

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The experts caution that global markets are entering a different phase from the liquidity-driven rally that defined the last decade. Investors are reassessing whether the scale of AI-related capital expenditure globally can generate proportional returns, particularly as hyperscalers continue pouring billions into data-centre infrastructure.

Tibrewal warns of over-optimism, saying that "We are in an AI bubble as far as financial markets are concerned." He observes that money has already started rotating out of the MAG 7 into energy, materials, and other sectors, with concerns growing over returns on massive data centre investments. He adds that markets are likely to reward businesses linked to real assets, manufacturing, and domestic economic activity more than long-duration growth narratives if inflation remains elevated.

Khemani notes that global investors continue to view India as one of the few large economies offering both structural growth and macro stability amid rising geopolitical fragmentation. Several sovereign wealth funds and long-only global pools of capital have continued increasing allocations to India despite near-term volatility in emerging markets.

Khemani's portfolio is currently 85 to 90% invested, emphasizing a long-term approach. He advises domestic investors to "Stay invested in India. You will make lot of money."