ICICI Securities Sets Target Price of Rs 3150 for Multi Commodity Exchange of India
ICICI Securities Downgrades Multi Commodity Exchange of India to HOLD
In a reversal of their previous stance, ICICI Securities has downgraded Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) to HOLD from Add in their latest research report. This decision comes after Q4FY26, where the research firm had predicted that earnings estimates would lag actual volume growth. However, they now believe that volume growth has moderated due to lower volatility.
The research report highlights that while increased participation is a structural opportunity, current valuations capture the medium-term upside well. For FY27E and FY28E, ICICI Securities estimates that MCX's future and premium average daily turnover (ADTV) will be around INR 706 billion and INR 98 billion, respectively. This is compared to INR 905 billion and INR 106 billion in Q4FY26, and INR 554 billion and INR 92 billion in April 2026.
| Forecast Period | Future ADTV (INR billion) | Premium ADTV (INR billion) |
|---|---|---|
| Q4FY26 | 905 | 106 |
| Apr'26 | 554 | 92 |
| FY27E | 706 | 98 |
| FY28E | 776 | 112 |
The downgrade to HOLD is based on a 40x multiple on MCX's FY28E core earnings per share (EPS) of INR 75, which excludes investment income, net of taxes, and adds free cash, including investments, stockholder's funds, and regulatory capital. This valuation results in a target price of INR 3,150 for MCX.
Investor Takeaway
Investors should be cautious of the downgrade of MCX to HOLD from Add by ICICI Securities.
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