Gold Prices on Akshaya Tritiya: 9-Year Trends and Future Projections

Gold Buying on Akshaya Tritiya: A Profitable Tradition

Data over the past nine years has consistently shown that buying gold on Akshaya Tritiya has been a profitable strategy, in line with the broader uptrend of the yellow metal. The past year has delivered the highest returns during this period, with gold prices rising 60% since April 30, 2025, which marked Akshaya Tritiya. In absolute terms, over the last nine years, the yellow metal has delivered a whopping 435% returns as it has risen from around ₹29,000 to ₹154,000.

This year, too, analysts believe buying gold would be the ideal choice on Akshaya Tritiya as prices can reach ₹180,000 levels, signaling a 10-15% upside from the current levels. Akshaya Tritiya, believed to bring prosperity, good luck, and lasting wealth, is one of the major occasions when Indians purchase gold in addition to Dhanteras.

Despite 2026 being a tumultuous year for gold buyers, the outlook for bullion remains strong. Gold's recent pullback has been counterintuitive, as in a period of acute geopolitical stress, it has underperformed its traditional safe-haven role. Gold has shed 10% from its March 2 highs amid the US-Iran war, as inflation fears and the possibility of no rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have weighed on sentiment. That said, in 2026 so far, the yellow metal remains up 15%.

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The combination of a stronger dollar, profit-taking after a long rally, slower central bank buying, and markets beginning to price rate hikes across developed markets has weighed on bullion. Vivek Rajaraman, Managing Director - Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, opined that non-interest-bearing assets face headwinds in a higher-for-longer rate environment. However, this dynamic can reverse quickly, according to Rajaraman, if the Iran situation extends, rate expectations soften, or dollar strength fades.

Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst- Commodities, Axis Securities, expects gold prices to maintain a positive bias in 2026, as either a stagflationary environment or lower crude oil prices would be supportive for bullion in the period ahead.

Historically, gold has provided meaningful protection from the monetary and financial effects of prolonged conflict. With the core trends of de-dollarisation, central bank buying, and US debt sustainability concerns still in play, gold continues to look strong, opined Rajaraman, suggesting that gold should be part of investors' portfolios. Kunal Shah, Head of Commodities Research at Nirmal Bang, advised that one should remain invested in gold because of the disruption during this war, adding that gold prices can rise to ₹180,000 in a year. Similarly, Gaglani anticipates that prices may once again retest the $5,300–$5,500 range over the next year, implying an upside of around 10–15% from current levels.

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