Crude Oil Prices Surge 40% in March Amid US-Iran Tensions

Crude Oil Prices Rise Amid Middle East Tensions

Brent Crude Futures rose $1.27, or 1.2%, to $104.41 a barrel on Monday, March 16, following a gain of $2.68 in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude climbed 54 cents, or 0.6%, to $99.25 a barrel after rising nearly $3 on Friday.

The surge in crude oil prices is attributed to concerns over the potential risks to Middle East energy infrastructure, despite US President Donald Trump urging nations to help protect the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil shipments. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical energy chokepoint, and disruptions to its operations could lead to significant supply shocks.

MCX Crude Oil Prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also rallied, tracking global prices. MCX crude oil prices were trading 1.90% up at ₹9,227 per barrel.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

The tensions in the Middle East have been escalating, with Iran suspending shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after US-Israeli strikes on the country. This has resulted in the largest supply shock on record, with nearly a fifth of global oil supply being disrupted. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has announced that more than 400 million barrels of oil reserves will be released into the market to ease price spikes triggered by the conflict.

Forecasts and Outlook

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, believes that WTI crude oil is currently stabilizing near the $98–$100 zone. However, if prices break below $96, it could trigger a deeper retracement toward $94.

In contrast, Choice Institutional Equities is forecasting that Brent Crude is likely to reach $130 per barrel by the end of this week, driven by the scarcity-premium phase as floating inventories diminish and marginal storage tightens.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline