Centre Boosts Monsoon Readiness, Asserts Sufficient Food and Fertilizer Reserves Amid El Nino Worries

Government Prepares for Below-Normal Monsoon Amid El Nino Conditions

The Centre has put in place multiple measures to safeguard the upcoming kharif season, as forecasts indicate a below-normal monsoon linked to El Nino conditions.

To mitigate the potential impact on agricultural output, the agriculture ministry has established crop monitoring and crisis management teams. States have been advised to maintain seed reserves and prepare contingency plans to minimize any disruption. Specifically, states have been asked to keep a one per cent seed reserve, focusing on short- and medium-duration crop varieties that can better withstand weather-related disruptions.

The government's preparedness is evident in the formation of a crop weather watch group, which meets every Monday to study rainfall patterns, sowing progress, reservoir status, input availability, pest incidence, and price trends. A separate crisis management group, comprising relief commissioners and state disaster management authorities, has also been formed to coordinate response measures.

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The agriculture ministry is working closely with the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) to prepare district-level contingency plans and holding regular video conferences with state governments to review monsoon preparedness. The India Meteorological Department has forecast the southwest monsoon at around 90 per cent of the long-period average, indicating a below-normal season and raising concerns over crop production if El Nino conditions intensify later in the year.

Revised Fertiliser Demand Estimates

Taking the weather outlook into account, the agriculture ministry has revised fertiliser demand estimates for the kharif season. Urea demand has been projected at 194 lakh tonnes, down by 4 lakh tonnes, while demand for di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) has been reduced by 6 lakh tonnes to 60 lakh tonnes.

Fertiliser Availability and Stock Levels

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Domestic production after the West Asia crisis stands at 104.81 lakh tonnes, while imports totalled 27.62 lakh tonnes, taking overall availability to about 132.43 lakh tonnes. The government has stated that fertiliser stocks currently stand at 51 per cent of the kharif requirement, significantly higher than the conventional stock level of 33 per cent due to advance planning and improved logistics.

Secured Imports and Global Tender

India has secured 25 lakh tonnes of urea and 50 lakh tonnes of DAP from suppliers outside the Strait of Hormuz, with shipments expected to arrive during June and July. A global tender for 70 lakh tonnes of urea is also underway.

Food Security and Price Stability

On food security, officials have noted that wheat stocks stood at 513 lakh tonnes against the buffer norm of 275 lakh tonnes as of July 1, while rice stocks were at 397 lakh tonnes compared with the prescribed norm of 135 lakh tonnes. The government added that prices of cereals, pulses, and sugar have remained stable, while potato, onion, and tomato prices continue to remain within a normal range without any unusual volatility.

Edible Oil Supplies Remain Adequate

Edible oil supplies remain adequate, supported by regular imports from Indonesia and Malaysia for palm oil, Russia and Ukraine for sunflower oil, and Argentina and Brazil for soybean oil through trade routes that remain unaffected.