Wall Street Week Ahead: Focus on Inflation, Oil Prices Amid Escalating Middle East Conflict

US Economic Outlook for the Week Ahead

Oil Prices Set to Rise Further

In the midst of intensifying Middle East conflict and increasing crude oil prices, Wall Street investors will face a multitude of economic indicators to evaluate in the week ahead. The war involving Iran has triggered massive supply shocks, leading exporters to scale back production as storage reaches capacity and the primary maritime route for global fuel markets remains effectively blocked. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have already initiated output cuts, following Iraq, where production has plummeted by approximately 60%. As a result, Brent crude topped $90 a barrel on Friday, a sharp increase from the $70 level seen before the February 28 offensives.

Economic Schedule Highlights

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The main highlight of the week will be the release of February's consumer price inflation. Additionally, investors will scrutinize the January PCE index, the Federal Reserve's chosen metric for tracking inflation, alongside personal income and spending reports. The corporate sector will also be in focus, with Oracle, Hewlett Packard, Adobe, and BioNTech scheduled to release their quarterly earnings.

US Economic Calendar

• March 9 (Monday): No scheduled data releases.
• March 10 (Tuesday):
  • NFIB optimism index for February
  • Existing home sales for February
• March 11 (Wednesday):
  • Consumer Price Index for February
  • Monthly US federal budget for February
• March 12 (Thursday):
  • Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 7
  • US trade deficit for January
  • Housing starts for February
  • Building permits for February
• March 13 (Friday):
  • Gross domestic product (GDP) first revision Q4
  • Personal income and spending for January
  • PCE index (delayed report) for January
  • Durable goods orders for January
  • Job openings for January
  • Consumer sentiment (prelim) for March

Q4 Earnings

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

The following companies are due to report fourth quarter results in the week ahead:

• Hewlett Packard
• Oracle
• BioNTech
• Adobe
• DICK'S Sporting Goods
• Lennar
• Ulta Beauty

US Stock Market Performance

Last week, US stock indices ended lower on Friday as oil prices shot to their highest level since 2023 due to the ongoing Iran war, and a weak update on the US labor market. The combination of a weak economy and high inflation is a worst-case scenario for investors, as the Federal Reserve has no good tool to fix both problems at the same time.

• S&P 500: fell 90.69 points, or 1.3%, to 6,740.02
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: fell 453.19 points, or 0.9%, to 47,501.55
• Nasdaq composite: fell 361.31 points, or 1.6%, to 22,387.68
• Russell 2000 index of smaller companies: fell 60.27 points, or 2.3% to 2,525.30

For the week, the S&P 500 is down 138.86 points, or 2%, the Dow is down 1,476.37 points, or 3%, the Nasdaq is down 280.53 points, or 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies is down 60.27 points, or 2.3%.