US–Iran Peace Talks: Potential Impact on Indian Markets

Market Outlook: Experts Predict Continued Recovery

The Indian stock market witnessed a sharp recovery on April 13, despite closing lower, and is expected to continue its uptrend in the upcoming sessions. The near-term technical setup is positive, with momentum indicators showing renewed hopes of another round of US–Iran peace talks. This may lead to a rebound in the Nifty 50, with immediate resistance at 24,000–24,200, and above this, 24,400–24,500 are the levels to watch.

The Nifty 50 fell 208 points (0.86 percent) to 23,843, while the Bank Nifty dropped 308 points (0.55 percent) to 55,605, with weakening market breadth. A total of 1,844 shares saw selling pressure compared to 1,140 advancing shares on the National Stock Exchange.

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Nifty 50 Technical Analysis

The Nifty 50 has taken support near the 9-day and 20-day EMAs, which are now sloping upwards and suggest a positive bias among traders in the short term. Although the benchmark index is still trading below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, the short-term uptrend will now try to target resistance at the 50-day EMA, which currently stands near 24,175.

Aditya Thukral, Founder & Analyst of AT Research & Risk Managers, recommends buying Nifty Futures on dips around 23,800, with a stop-loss at 23,649, targeting 24,100.

Nifty Index Outlook

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The Nifty index rebounded sharply in the previous week but is finding resistance around the 40-day EMA and is struggling to sustain above it. The failure of US–Iran ceasefire talks and the Nifty index sustaining below the 40-day EMA make a case for a short-term correction and a retracement of the sharp rise seen in the previous week.

Somil Mehta, Head of Retail Research at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, suggests selling Nifty Futures at current levels, with a stop-loss at 24,076, and a downside target of 23,450–23,150.

Bank Nifty Technical Analysis

The Bank Nifty has witnessed a sharp rally of nearly 6,000 points from its recent bottom in just seven trading sessions, highlighting strong bullish momentum. However, on the hourly chart, a double top formation is visible along with negative RSI divergence, indicating potential exhaustion at higher levels.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi, recommends selling Bank Nifty Futures in the 55,900–55,700 zone, with a stop-loss at 56,300, targeting 55,000.

Bank Nifty Index Outlook

The Bank Nifty index also witnessed a sharp up move in the previous week but failed to cross the 50 percent retracement level of its previous fall and the 40-day EMA. This makes Friday's high of 55,978 an important resistance level in the near term.

Somil Mehta suggests selling Bank Nifty Futures at current levels, with a stop-loss at 55,850, and a downside target of 54,150–55,550. This view holds as long as the Bank Nifty index does not break above the high of 55,978.