US Waiver on Russian Oil Provides India with Temporary Reprieve, But Long-term Benefits Remain Uncertain Due to Competition from China and Elevated Dependence on the Gulf Region

US Waiver Offers Near-Term Relief to India's Crude Supplies

India's crude imports remain highly exposed to potential supply disruptions, despite a 30-day waiver from the US allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. The waiver, issued by the US Treasury Department on March 6, 2026, will allow Indian refiners to import 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian crude, up from 1.2 million bpd in recent months.

Kpler, a data and analytics firm, notes that the waiver does not fundamentally change India's structural exposure to Middle Eastern supply flows. With nearly 50% of India's crude imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the country remains vulnerable to potential disruptions. Competition from China for the same barrels may also limit India's benefits.

As of early March 2026, approximately 145 million barrels of Russian crude remain on the water, including significant volumes across the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Suez Canal, and around Singapore. This could potentially be redirected towards Indian ports, if commercial deals are finalized.

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India's import of Russian oil is expected to surge to 2.0 million bpd in the near term, if the West Asia conflict is prolonged. With the waiver in place, Indian refiners could quickly resume purchases, potentially pushing Russian inflows to 1.6 to 2 million bpd in the near term.

Key Statistics:

• 50%: Proportion of India's crude imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz
• 145 million barrels: Russian crude remaining on the water as of early March 2026
• 1.6 million bpd: Expected increase in India's Russian oil imports
• 2.0 million bpd: Expected Russian oil imports in the near term
• 20%: Russia's share in India's oil imports in February
• 1.1 million bpd: India's imports of Russian oil in February