US-Iran Tensions Send Global Markets into 10% Decline in March, Analysts Caution Investors to Await Nifty Breakthrough Above 24,000 Before Re-Entering Long Positions

Market Update: Indian Benchmark Indices Fall 10% in March

Key Figures:

• Sensex: Down 1,371.96 points or 1.8% at 74,662.46
• Nifty: Down 462.95 points or 1.96% at 23,176.20
• India VIX: Up 3% at 22.18

Market Analysis

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The Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, have fallen 10% in March due to the ongoing Middle East tensions and a surge in crude oil prices. Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, notes that the market remains in a sell-on-rise phase until Nifty rises above 23,800.

Technical Indicators

The Nifty continues to trade below its 10-DEMA and both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA on the hourly chart, indicating persistent short-term weakness. The RSI has slipped below 40 and is in oversold territory, while India VIX has stabilized above 20, reflecting heightened caution among market participants.

Investment Strategy

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Given the ongoing global uncertainties and heightened market volatility, investors are advised to remain disciplined and selective. Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, recommends focusing on fundamentally strong stocks during market corrections and initiating fresh long positions only after Nifty decisively breaks and sustains above the 25,000 level.

Global Market Impact

The West Asian conflict continues to impact global markets, with weakness in the US markets indicating a potential rebound is some time away. Brent crude is trading around $100, putting bulls on the defensive. FIIs are persisting with their sustained selling strategy, putting pressure on even large-cap bluechips.

Long-term Outlook

While the near-term outlook remains challenging, Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited, sees a silver lining in the correction. The premium valuation of India has narrowed during the year, making it highly investable for a long-term investor and reducing the downside risk.