US-Iran Deal Uncertainty Fuels Oil Price Rally, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Lows in Jeopardy

Market Outlook: Consolidation Ahead

The Indian stock market is expected to remain consolidative with range-bound trading, due to mixed to sideways technical structure. Spiking oil prices amid US-Iran deal uncertainty and West Bengal exit polls have also signaled caution. If the Nifty 50 fails to defend Wednesday's low of 24,060, bears may target the 23,950-23,800 levels.

Market breadth remained in favor of bears, with a total of 1,547 shares declining against 1,406 advancing shares on the National Stock Exchange. The Nifty 50 has been oscillating in a narrow range of 500 points over the last five trading sessions, suggesting a phase of consolidation.

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Nifty Outlook and Strategy

The daily RSI has been oscillating in the 59.66-49.21 zone, indicating a sideways trend. The 24,300-24,350 zone is expected to act as immediate resistance for the index. A sustained breakout above 24,350 could trigger a sharp upside rally, with the index likely to head towards 24,600, followed by 24,750 in the short term.

Strategy: Buy Nifty futures above 24,355 with a stop-loss of 24,150, targeting 24,650.

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Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

The Bank Nifty has underperformed the frontline indices over the last six sessions, indicating relative weakness in the banking space. The daily RSI has registered a bearish crossover and is trending lower, while the -DI has moved above the +DI, highlighting strengthening negative momentum.

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty futures above 55,950 with a stop-loss of 55,400, targeting 57,150.

Technical Analysis

Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, believes that the Nifty attempted to test the gap resistance zone but faced selling pressure and closed near its 50 DMA, indicating resistance at higher levels. Vaishali Patel, Deputy Manager - Research-Technical Department at Jainam Broking, suggests that the Nifty is likely to trade in a range-bound zone, with 23,800-23,700 acting as immediate support.

Market Sentiment

The market is likely to remain range-bound with stock-specific action, where dips may attract buying but upside could be capped. The trading approach should remain level-based and cautious rather than aggressive directional bets.