US-Iran Conflict Intensifies: Failed Ceasefire Negotiations Stoke Global Market Uncertainty

US-Iran Ceasefire Talks Fail, Weighing on Oil Prices and Global Markets

The failure of ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran to reach an agreement over the weekend is expected to have a significant impact on global markets. The talks, which were held in Pakistan on Saturday, April 11, failed to secure a deal after Iran declined to assure that it would not pursue nuclear weapons. The US delegation, led by JD Vance, will return home without a deal.

Market Experts Predict Volatility

According to market experts, the failure of the ceasefire talks is likely to weigh on crude oil prices, safe-haven assets like gold and silver, as well as the Indian stock market. Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, believes that the market is likely to open cautiously flat to mildly negative on Monday, with cues from oil prices and any overnight headlines on the Strait of Hormuz tensions driving early trade.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

Impact on Indian Stock Market

The US-Iran peace talks and ceasefire extension have brought short-term relief to the Indian stock market, but the recovery remains fragile and headline-driven. Srivastava explained that Indian markets remain "hostage to headlines" and relief rallies tend to reverse on fresh geopolitical stress. For losses to be pared sustainably, more triggers are required beyond just a ceasefire extension, including a complete cessation of hostilities, full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to remove the oil risk premium, and crude stabilising in the $75-$85 range.

Impact on Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Anuj Gupta, SEBI Registered Research Analyst, believes that crude oil prices are likely to witness a sharp gap-up opening on Monday, as the risk premium in energy markets is likely to rise. The market expert anticipated that precious metals gold and silver would open on a flat note tomorrow, unless there is a meaningful escalation in geopolitical tensions, which could trigger a gap-down opening.

Gupta further said that gold and silver may witness some profit booking or a near-term correction, driven by expectations of monetary tightening from central banks amid persistent inflationary pressures. However, recent weak US macroeconomic indicators, including softer unemployment trends, moderating CPI, and slowing GDP growth, point toward an economic slowdown, which could limit the downside in bullion and provide an underlying support base.

Technical Outlook

On the technical outlook, Gupta added that gold is expected to trade in the range of $4,650 to $4,800, while silver may move within the $72 to $78 band.