US-Iran Conflict Escalation: Ceasefire Negotiations Stagnate Amid Rising Oil Prices

US-Iran War Escalation Triggers Gold and Silver Price Plunge

The global precious metals market experienced a significant downturn on Monday, April 13, as gold and silver prices tumbled amid rising inflation concerns and intensifying fears of a global energy supply shock. The US-Iran war ceasefire talks ended with no deal, and the US plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns about a potential disruption to global energy supplies.

Gold prices on the COMEX fell by up to 2.2%, slipping below $4,650 an ounce and erasing the gains from the previous week. Meanwhile, COMEX silver prices slided 3.29% to $74 per ounce during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

The sharp decline in precious metals was largely driven by the surge in brent crude oil prices, which rose as much as 8.4% to $103.24 a barrel in early trading on Monday. The US military announced that it will enforce a blockade starting 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Monday, after weekend talks with Iran failed to convert a fragile ceasefire into a lasting peace following six weeks of conflict in the Middle East.

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According to a report by Bloomberg, President Donald Trump also stated that the US would intercept any vessel that has paid Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets. Prior to the war, about one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas moved through this chokepoint.

The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has sent shockwaves through the global economy, with equity futures declining and the dollar strengthening by as much as 0.4%. This has created pressure on precious metals, which is priced in US currency. Rising energy costs have also heightened inflation concerns, increasing the likelihood that central banks may delay rate cuts or even raise rates. This scenario is typically unfavorable for gold, which tends to perform better when borrowing costs are low, according to the Bloomberg report.

According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, the commodities market is heading into the week on a cautiously balanced note, with sentiment shaped by stabilizing price action and continued macro uncertainty. Precious metals are showing early signs of stability following recent volatility, with gold and silver finding support from renewed safe-haven demand even as markets continue to respond to evolving global cues.

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On the gold prices outlook, Ponmudi noted that COMEX Gold is currently hovering around the $4,750-$4,800 range, following a gradual rebound from last month's sharp drop. The recent price movement indicates that the metal is entering a phase of consolidation, as it attempts to establish a short-term base after a period of elevated volatility.

On the silver prices outlook, Ponmudi added that COMEX Silver is trading above the $76 level, indicating an attempt to stabilize after the sharp corrective phase seen in the previous month. The current structure suggests that prices are trying to rebuild near-term support, although momentum remains mixed.

The technical structure of silver prices remains range-bound with a mildly weak undertone, and directional clarity is likely to emerge only upon a decisive breakout above resistance or a breakdown below key support levels.