UniCredit CEO Warns of Inevitable Restructuring at Commerzbank Without Shift in Strategic Direction

UniCredit CEO Warns of Inevitable Restructuring at Commerzbank

April 20 (Reuters) - UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel has expressed his concerns about the future of Commerzbank, stating that the bank's current momentum is unsustainable and that further restructuring is inevitable.

According to Orcel, Commerzbank's 2025 results have been propped up by temporary tailwinds and financial engineering, rather than genuine fundamental improvements. This, he believes, means that the bank's momentum simply offers more of the same, which is unlikely to change the bank's underlying performance.

| Comparison of Commerzbank and UniCredit's 2025 Results | | --- | --- | | Commerzbank | UniCredit | | Net Profit Headline: €1.5 billion | Net Profit Headline: €2.8 billion | | Revenue Growth: 3% | Revenue Growth: 8% | | Underlying Pattern: Repeated underlying pattern of 2021-2024 | Underlying Pattern: Improved underlying performance |

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Orcel also pointed out that Commerzbank's momentum implies continued underperformance into 2028, with half of the bank's consensus revenue growth based on financial tailwinds and rates. This, he believes, risks Commerzbank becoming increasingly unfit for a rapidly changing banking environment.

The proposed Commerzbank "unlocked" plan, which would be implemented if UniCredit were to acquire the bank, aims to restore discipline by balancing the right growth with investment-led efficiency. This, Orcel believes, would require "hard work, determination, and commitment" to unlock the bank's true potential.

Commerzbank's current valuation of 22% discount to the sector is also a concern for Orcel, who believes that a combination of UniCredit and Commerzbank would add further €1.1 billion in pre-tax value by 2030.

However, Orcel has stated that any offer revision would depend on serious detailed discussions with Commerzbank, which have yet to take place. A bid from UniCredit would include a "meaningful" premium embedded in Commerzbank's increased valuation driven by UniCredit's investment.

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