UAE's Withdrawal from OPEC+: Implications for Oil Markets and Crude Pricing

UAE Exit from OPEC Could Weaken Producer Group's Global Output Share

A potential exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could have significant implications for the producer group's share in global crude output. According to a Moneycontrol analysis of production data, OPEC's role in world crude production has been on a long-term decline as non-OPEC producers gained market share.

In 1974, OPEC+ accounted for 69.8 percent of global output, but this figure fell to 55.7 percent in 2024 and further to 46.5 percent in 2025, while non-OPEC producers rose to 53.6 percent last year. The UAE's contribution to OPEC's global share is substantial, with the country producing 3.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2025, accounting for 12 percent of total OPEC output of 28 mbpd. This marks a steady rise from just 4.4 percent in 1971, underlining the UAE's increasing importance within the group over time.

Leaving OPEC could offer operational benefits to the UAE, which has been constrained by production quotas. According to the data, the country's oil production capacity stood at 4.9 mbpd in both 2024 and 2025, but actual production was only 3.3 mbpd in 2024 and 3.6 mbpd in 2025. This implies spare capacity of 1.6 mbpd and 1.3 mbpd, respectively, that could potentially be deployed outside quota restrictions.

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The UAE has been inching closer to production quotas over the last two years, producing 90.6 percent of its allocation in 2024 and 97.5 percent in 2023. This suggests that the country has been operating near its maximum capacity, and an exit from OPEC could provide greater flexibility to utilize spare capacity.

Pricing data also indicates that the UAE's flagship Murban crude has often traded close to or below the OPEC Reference Basket in recent years. In 2024, Murban averaged $79.7 per barrel, slightly below the OPEC basket at $79.9. In 2023, Murban averaged $82.9, versus $83.0 for the basket. This suggests that the UAE may be able to maintain its market share and pricing power outside of OPEC.