UAE Cautious on Iran's Credibility Amid Hormuz Tensions, Peace Talks Stall

Middle East Tensions Rise as Iran Conflict Remains at Impasse

Two months into the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed due to an Iranian blockade, with the U.S. Navy blocking exports of Iranian crude oil. This has resulted in the choking off of 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies, pushing up global energy prices and increasing concerns about an economic downturn.

Global Oil Prices Surge

Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose again on Friday, up slightly at over $111 a barrel and poised for a 5.7% gain over the week after hitting $126 a barrel on Thursday, the highest level since March 2022. A ceasefire has been in place since April 8, but reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was to be briefed on plans for new military strikes to compel Iran to negotiate pushed global oil prices up to a four-year high at one point on Thursday.

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UAE Official Warns Against Trusting Iran

A senior United Arab Emirates official, Anwar Gargash, has expressed deep mistrust towards Iran, stating that "no unilateral Iranian arrangements can be trusted or relied upon following its treacherous aggression against all its neighbors." Gargash emphasized the importance of the "collective international will and provisions of international law" in ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Negotiations Remain at a Standstill

Mediator Pakistan has not set a date for new talks on ending the war, which has killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. U.S. President Trump said on Tuesday he was unhappy with the latest proposal from Iran, and a senior administration official stated that, for the purposes of the 1973 War Powers Resolution, hostilities had terminated due to the April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Financial Markets Remain on Edge

Financial and energy markets remain on edge due to concerns about the impasse over negotiations and worries that there could be a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned on Thursday against expecting quick results from talks.

U.S. Plans Remain Unclear

Axios news site reported that one plan to be shared with Trump during a briefing by top U.S. military leaders involved using ground forces to take over part of the strait to reopen it to commercial shipping. Trump is also considering extending the U.S. blockade or declaring a unilateral victory, officials have said. Washington did not immediately announce any details of its plans.

Coalition Formation

In a sign that the U.S. was also envisaging a scenario where hostilities cease, a State Department cable due to be delivered orally to partner nations by May 1 invited them to join a new coalition, called the Maritime Freedom Construct, to enable ships to navigate the strait. France, Britain, and others have held talks on contributing to such a coalition but said they would help to open the Strait only when the conflict ends.

Timeline

• April 8: Ceasefire between Tehran and Washington
• February 28: U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran
• November: Midterm elections in the United States