Triveni Turbine Maintains Buy Recommendation, Target Price Set at Rs 638 by Prabhudas Lilladher

Triveni Turbine Reports Mixed Quarterly Performance

Triveni Turbine (TRIV) has released its latest quarterly performance report, showcasing a mixed set of results. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the company's revenue grew by 26.3%, while its EBITDA margin contracted by 354 basis points to 18.8%. This decline in margin was primarily due to an adverse project mix, lower aftermarket contribution, and the execution of strategic low-margin NTPC energy storage orders.

However, the company's order inflows remained healthy, reaching Rs7.5 billion (+19% YoY), driven by strong export demand and robust traction in aftermarket offerings. The company's enquiry pipeline strengthened materially during the year, with global product inquiries rising to approximately 18 GW, while domestic inquiries doubled YoY to around 7 GW. This growth was supported by thermal power expansion, industrial capex revival, renewable energy investments, and rising data centre-linked power demand.

The export order conversion environment is gradually improving, despite geopolitical disruptions, with management expecting exports to outgrow domestic business in FY27. New growth avenues, including geothermal, ORC, CO2-based energy storage, heat pumps, and SMR-linked opportunities, continue to gain traction, particularly across the US and Southeast Asia. Additionally, data centre-related opportunities now account for a significant portion of the inquiry pipeline, supported by rising demand for combined-cycle power infrastructure and AI-driven energy investments.

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Key Statistics

The aftermarket and API turbine businesses also continue to witness improving momentum, while the US subsidiary is expected to move towards profitability in FY27, supported by better operating leverage and improving local demand traction.

Outlook

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The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 45.5x/38.0x on FY27/28E earnings per share (EPS). We have rolled forward to Mar'28E and downgraded our rating from 'Accumulate' to 'Hold', given the recent rally in the stock price. The stock is now valued at a P/E of 38x Mar'28E (37x Sep'27E earlier), with a target price of Rs638 (Rs585 earlier).