Stock Markets May Offer Years of Zero Returns, Warns DSP Mutual Fund CEO

Indian Equity Market Underperforms Global Peers

The Indian stock market has delivered muted returns over the last year, significantly underperforming many major global peers, keeping investors worried about their equity portfolio. The Nifty 50 has delivered zero returns over the last year, while the broader Nifty 500 index has inched up by 4%. In comparison, the S&P 500 index has jumped over 28% in the same period.

The poor show of the domestic market can be largely attributed to weak earnings growth, the lack of AI-themed opportunities, foreign capital outflow, and increased geopolitical risks. However, equity markets never move in a linear way, and in fact, every market delivers zero returns for certain periods.

Markets are inherently unpredictable, and understanding this volatility is crucial for investors. Kalpen Parekh, MD and CEO at DSP Mutual Fund, recently shared an important insight on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that all markets can have long periods of zero returns.

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Parekh compared the performances of three major equity markets over different periods: Nifty 500 TRI (Indian markets), S&P 500 TRI in INR (US markets), and the MSCI China in INR (Chinese markets). The given data show that during the 3 January 2000 to 24 April 2026 period, the Indian market delivered the strongest returns of about 13% annualised. It was followed by the US market (11%) and then the Chinese market (9%).

However, this leadership of the Indian market has not been consistent. For instance, in the 2010–2020 decade, the US clearly dominated with 18.5% returns, almost double that of India (9.9%) and China (9.9%). In the more recent 2020–2026 period, the US again leads with an over 20% return, while India's performance has been modest (15%). China significantly underperforms with a return of 5%.

The key takeaway from the given data is that equity markets have periods of rise and fall, due to which market leadership keeps changing. The themes, sectors, and even stocks that outshine others in one decade may disappoint in the next.

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The data also show the maximum drawdowns. From 2000 to April 2026, the Chinese market saw a maximum loss of 72%, while India and the US suffered maximum losses of 57% and 55%, respectively.

The data highlights the fact that the period of the investment is more important than timing the market. Besides, one must keep her portfolio diversified, focusing on quality. Rebalancing the portfolio is also critical. One may consider buying low and selling high every five years.

As Parekh aptly puts it, "Every market will disappoint you for long periods. Your job is not to predict the winner. Your job is to stay invested, stay diversified, and let compounding do the rest."