State Election Results to Influence Market Sentiment

Indian Equities Close Flat for the Week Amid Global Market Volatility

Indian equities closed nearly flat for the week, with caution gripping the market as stalled US–Iran diplomacy, a sharp surge in crude oil prices, persistent foreign institutional selling, and a rupee touching record lows weighed on sentiment.

Market Performance

For the week, the Nifty 50 edged up 99.6 points, or 0.41%, to settle at 23,997.55. The broader market did better, with the Nifty Midcap 100 bouncing back from the prior week's losses to finish 0.7 percent higher, and smallcap stocks gained 2.5 percent.

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Sector Performance

Sector performance varied, with Nifty Oil & Gas, IT, and Pharma each rallying roughly 3 percent during the week. IT stocks continued their recovery on the back of resilient commentary around technology spending.

Currency Markets

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

The Indian rupee was the story of the week, sliding to a fresh record low of 95.33 against the US dollar on April 30 before staging a partial recovery to close at 94.92 — still 67 paise weaker than the previous week's 94.25. FIIs remained net sellers throughout the week, offloading equities worth Rs 13,771.50 crore.

Global Markets

US equities also closed the month on a strong note, with a gain of 10 percent, its highest monthly gain since November 2020. Strong corporate results more than offset the drag from rising commodity costs and a hawkish Fed commentary. Oil markets were volatile through the week, with a gain of 7 percent, especially after the UAE decided to come out of the OPEC cartel.

Market Outlook

Going forward, Indian markets are expected to take cues from state election results on Monday and then follow the global trend for most of the week. A strong performance by the BJP in state elections can help improve market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

On the weekly timeframe, the Nifty settled at 23,997.55, registering a modest gain of 0.42 percent for the week. Price has been consistently respecting a long-standing ascending trendline that has served as a reliable floor across multiple touchpoints. However, drawing a descending trendline from the recent swing highs reveals that price is now pressing against meaningful resistance from above, which happens to coincide with the 40-week exponential moving average.

Breadth Indicators

The FII net index position indicator currently reads at -1,84,476, showing a recovery from the extreme bearish levels seen earlier. The structure is now forming higher highs, indicating that FIIs are reducing their short positions and that selling pressure is gradually easing. The percentage of Nifty 50 stocks carrying a daily RMI buy signal has fallen sharply from the extreme overbought territory of 80 to 90 down to a reading of just 20, placing it firmly in oversold conditions.

Sector Rotation

Stocks to Watch

Among the stocks expected to perform better during the week are MCX, Schneider, Power India, Nestle, GE Shipping, BSE, Aarti Industries, Karnataka Bank, and Cummins India.