Sensex and Nifty 50 Outlook: Impact of US-Iran Tensions on Indian Stock Market Next Week

Indian Stock Market Suffers Widespread Selloff on Thursday

The Indian stock market experienced a significant decline on Thursday, April 30, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 falling into the red. The 30-share Sensex dropped 583 points, or 0.75%, to close at 76,913.50, while the NSE's Nifty 50 slipped 180 points, or 0.74%, to end at 23,997.55. Broader markets also weakened, with the BSE 150 Midcap and BSE 250 Smallcap indices declining 1% and 0.50%, respectively.

Out of the Nifty 50 constituents, 34 stocks finished lower, with Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Hindalco Industries, Hindustan Unilever, and Tata Steel emerging as the top losers.

Stock Market Outlook for Next Week

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According to Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, Indian markets are poised to begin the week on a strong note, with Gift Nifty indicating a gap-up opening of over 200 points from Thursday's close. This positive momentum, supported by strength in US markets, remains largely unpriced, setting the stage for an optimistic start.

The most immediate catalyst will be the outcome of key state elections, with investors closely watching whether the ruling party at the Centre can wrest West Bengal from the Trinamool Congress and make meaningful inroads into opposition-ruled Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the Bharatiya Janata Party currently has a limited presence. Crude oil remains the single most critical macro variable, with Brent prices sustaining elevated levels amid ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, inflation risks remaining pronounced.

Market Trading Strategy for Next Week

Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking recommends investors maintain a cautious and selective approach, with global uncertainties persisting and domestic cues remaining mixed. Mishra further noted that sectorally, key segments such as banking and IT may continue to face relative underperformance, while select sectors and themes are likely to offer support and generate opportunities.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Key Technical Levels to Watch Out for Next Week

Sensex

According to Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money, Sensex is currently trading within the 76,900–77,200 range, reflecting a range-bound movement with a cautious undertone amid ongoing market volatility. On the technical outlook, Ponmudi added that on the upside, 77,500–78,000 continues to act as an immediate resistance band, and a sustained move above this zone would be required to improve sentiment and extend the upmove toward 79,000–80,000 levels.

Nifty 50

On the Nifty 50 outlook, Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said that the price action suggests consolidation with a mildly bullish bias. On the upside, resistance levels are placed at 24,350 and 24,600. On the downside, support is seen at 23,900 and 23,550. A breakdown below 23,500 could result in increased selling pressure.

Bank Nifty

Meanwhile, on the Bank Nifty outlook, Shah further explained that in the near term, immediate downside support is placed in the 54,350–53,850 zone in case selling pressure re-emerges. On the upside, 55,550 acts as immediate resistance, while 56,200 stands as the next key supply zone. From a momentum standpoint, the weekly RSI at 45.54 indicates weakening momentum and a bearish undertone.