Rupee Posts Largest Daily Gain Since 2013 Following RBI Monetary Intervention

Indian Rupee Logs Steepest Single-Day Gain Since 2013

The Indian rupee experienced a significant surge on Thursday, settling at 93.14 (provisional) against the US dollar, a gain of 156 paise. This marked the steepest single-day increase since 2013, following a series of measures introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to restrict banks from onshore forward markets.

The rupee opened at 94.62 and reached an intra-day high of 92.82, a sharp gain of 188 paise against the greenback. This was a significant rebound from Monday's close at 94.70, as well as the historic low of 94.84 against the dollar on Friday, which prompted the RBI to intervene.

The RBI's measures, announced on Wednesday, included capping the net open position on the Indian rupee for banks at $100 million, effective by April 10. Additionally, the RBI barred banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients, and prohibited companies from re-booking cancelled forwards.

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These steps triggered substantial dollar sales in the local forex market, supporting the rupee and widening the spread between onshore and non-deliverable forwards. This, in turn, highlighted the impact on hedging costs.

Since the beginning of the West Asia war on February 28, 2026, the rupee has depreciated by over 4%. During the fiscal year ended March 2026, the currency declined nearly 10% against the US dollar.

Analysts expect the rupee to trade with a positive bias as banks continue to liquidate their open positions ahead of the April 10 deadline. However, global risk-off sentiments and rising crude oil prices may continue to pressure the rupee at higher levels.

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The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, traded 0.60% higher at 100.05. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading at $108.08 per barrel, up 6.84% in futures trade.

The RBI's focus is on managing volatility through regulatory and liquidity measures rather than targeting specific levels. As a result, the INR is likely to trade in the Rs 93-95/USD range, with risks tilted towards further depreciation.