Reliance Share Price Surges Amid Ongoing US-Iran Tensions and Oil Price Rally

Reliance Industries Share Price Trades Higher Amid Global Market Volatility

On Friday, Reliance Industries share price rose despite the broader Indian stock market facing significant pressure due to escalating US-Iran tensions in the Middle East. The company's shares gained up to 0.62% to ₹1,400.50 per unit on the BSE.

The Indian stock market experienced a sharp selloff, with the benchmark BSE Sensex plummeting over 900 points and the Nifty 50 declining 1%. The global stock market weakness has been driven by concerns over the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices and heightened fears of supply disruptions.

The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor accounting for nearly 20% of global oil and LNG supply, has further intensified worries around energy security and inflation. However, analysts believe that the current environment could support the earnings outlook for Reliance Industries' oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services analysts predict that supply disruptions in global oil markets and delays in supply chain normalization could keep product cracks elevated, supporting refining and petrochemical margins for Reliance Industries. The brokerage firm has reiterated a 'Buy' rating on Reliance Industries shares with a target price of ₹1,750 per share, implying an upside potential of nearly 26% from Thursday's closing price.

Refining margins have witnessed a sharp uptick amid tightening product balances. In March 2026 so far, gasoil, gasoline, and jet fuel cracks have averaged $42, $16, and $58 per barrel, respectively, up 147%, 40%, and 124% above their long-term averages. Higher refining margins could meaningfully boost profitability for the O2C segment.

For Reliance Industries, every $1 per barrel increase in gross refining margin (GRM) is estimated to raise consolidated EBITDA by around 2.5%. Petrochemical prices have also strengthened amid supply disruptions and rising input costs. Polyethylene (PE) and paraxylene (PX) prices have increased by 10-15% month-on-month (MoM) in March, while naphtha prices have surged about 34% during the same period.

Motilal Oswal estimates that if gasoil, gasoline, and jet fuel cracks remain about $15, $5, and $15 per barrel above historical averages during the first half of FY27, Reliance Industries' O2C EBITDA could rise by around ₹17,000 crore.

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However, the brokerage cautioned that the reintroduction of export duties on fuels – similar to the windfall tax imposed in July 2022 – could cap refining margins and limit the upside to O2C earnings. Using a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) valuation approach, Motilal Oswal values the O2C and exploration & production segments at 7.5x and 5.0x FY28E EV/EBITDA, respectively, arriving at an enterprise value of ₹5.7 lakh crore for the standalone business.

Technical Outlook

According to Ruchit Jain, Head, Equity Technical Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, Reliance Industries share price is going through a consolidation phase wherein a support base has been formed at ₹1,300 level. However, he believes that the 50 DEMA at ₹1,435 and swing high at ₹1,490 are the immediate resistances which need to be surpassed for a trended upmove.

At 11:10 AM, Reliance share price was trading 0.08% higher at ₹1,392.95 per unit on the BSE.