RBI MPC Meeting 2026: Experts Predict Steady Repo Rate Amid Inflation Concerns

RBI MPC Meeting 2026: Reserve Bank of India to Announce Monetary Policy Decision

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, 8 April 2026, following the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting that concluded on 8 April 2026. The RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra-led MPC held its first bi-monthly policy meeting for FY27 from 6 to 8 April 2026.

The RBI MPC meeting comes amidst heightened global geopolitical tensions due to the ongoing US-Iran war in the Middle East, which has resulted in a sharp surge in crude oil prices. This has led to a steep depreciation of the rupee, with far-reaching implications for macro variables and financial markets. However, a recent development has brought some relief, with the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire deal. This deal is expected to halt American-Israeli attacks in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

RBI Monetary Policy Expectations Economists anticipate that the RBI's rate-setting panel, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), will maintain the repo rate at 5.25% and stick to a 'Neutral' policy stance. The MPC is expected to adopt a cautious tone due to concerns over an uptick in domestic inflation and slowing economic growth in FY27, driven by higher oil prices and supply chain disruptions.

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The RBI has already cut the repo rate by a cumulative 125 basis points (bps) since February 2025. In its previous monetary policy, the central bank maintained a status quo on repo rates. The RBI is expected to keep economic activity stable in FY27, with upgraded forecasts for Q1FY27 GDP growth to 6.9% (previously 6.7%) and Q2FY27 GDP growth to 7% (previously 6.8%). Additionally, the MPC increased Q1FY27 inflation estimates to 4.0% and Q2FY27 inflation estimates to 4.2% in its February policy.

Markets will be closely watching the RBI's growth and inflation expectations, which will provide valuable insight into the central bank's forward guidance.