Philippines' Statistics Secretary Outlines New GDP Series to Address IMF Concerns, Potential Rating Upgrade in Sight

New GDP Series to Address IMF Concerns

Statistics Secretary Saurabh Garg has announced that the new GDP series will largely address the concerns raised by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which had given India a C grade for national accounts in its November 2025 assessment.

The new series will feature a revised base year of 2022-23, replacing the single deflation method with double deflation or single extrapolation. This change is expected to minimize discrepancies in the GDP estimates. Additionally, the integration of the National Accounts Framework with the Supply Use Table (SUT) Framework will help address the discrepancy between GDP from production and expenditure approaches.

Key Features of the New Series

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• The new series will incorporate level estimates of the household sector through regular annual surveys, such as ASUSE and PLFS, to improve accuracy.
• GST data will be used to corroborate estimates compiled from other sources and for allocation of all-India estimates for private corporate sector in states.
• e-Vahan data will be used in compilation of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) of the road transport services.
• Public Finance Management System (PFMS) data will be used in compilation of estimates for central government and allocation of the same among states.

Studies and Data Sources

• The new series will incorporate updated rates and ratios from various studies, including those on agriculture, fisheries, milk and milk products, and transport services.
• Data from the Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute, Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Central Inland Fisheries Research Institute, National Dairy Research Institute, and Jawaharlal Nehru University will be used.

District-Wise GDP Data

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• As of now, 26 states are preparing District Domestic Product, and the ministry is working on uniform guidelines to be followed by states.

Expected Outcomes

• The new series is expected to reduce discrepancies in GDP estimates by integrating the SUT framework with national accounts.
• The use of GST data and other sources is expected to improve the quality and timeliness of estimates.
• The new series is expected to provide more granular and accurate estimates, reducing the need for revisions in the future.

IMF Rating

• The new series is expected to address the IMF's concerns about the outdated base year and single deflation method, leading to an improvement in the IMF's rating of India's national accounts.