Overnight Developments: US-Iran Tensions, Oil Prices, and Wall Street Rally Impact Indian Equity Markets

Indian Stock Market Expected to Open Higher on Wednesday

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Wednesday, following upbeat global market cues, amid optimism over the progress in the resumption of US–Iran talks and early signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Asian markets traded higher, while the US stock market jumped overnight, with the S&P 500 near its record closing high. The domestic equity market was shut for trading on Tuesday, April 14, on the account of Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti.

On Monday, the Indian stock market resumed its downward trajectory and ended sharply lower. The Sensex tanked 702.68 points, or 0.91%, to close at 76,847.57, while the Nifty 50 settled 207.95 points, or 0.86%, lower at 23,842.65. Traders are advised to maintain a cautious stance, focus on stock selection based on relative strength for long opportunities, and prefer a hedged approach to manage risk.

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Global Market Cues

Asian markets traded higher on Wednesday, following overnight gains on Wall Street, amid rising hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 1.14%, while the Topix rose 0.87%. South Korea's Kospi rallied 3.02% and the Kosdaq gained 1.65%.

US Market Performance

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The US stock market ended higher on Tuesday on renewed hopes for US-Iran peace talks and as investors also assessed the latest batch of bank earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.74 points, or 0.66%, to 48,535.99, while the S&P 500 rallied 81.14 points, or 1.18%, to finish at 6,967.38.

Key US Stock Price Movements

Nvidia stock price rallied 3.78%, AMD share price gained 3.34%, Amazon shares jumped 3.81%, Microsoft shares rose 2.25%, Apple shares fell 0.16%, and Tesla stock price surged 3.33%. BlackRock shares gained 3%, Citigroup shares rose 2.6%, United Airlines stock price rallied 2%, American Airlines share price spiked 8%, and Globalstar shares jumped 9.6%.

US-Iran Peace Talks

US President Donald Trump told the New York Post that the talks to end the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days. Noting that the right kind of people reached out, Trump said, "they want a deal" very badly. Meanwhile, China said that it will make efforts to restore peace and stability in the Middle East, AP reported, quoting sources.

IMF Projections

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected the Indian economy to grow faster than previously anticipated in 2026-2027. It expected India's GDP growth to be 6.5% compared with its previous forecast of 6.4% in January, despite the US-Iran war-led crisis. The IMF cut its growth outlook to 3.1% real GDP growth for 2026, down 0.2 percentage point from its previous forecast in January.

India CPI Inflation

India's retail inflation rose marginally to 3.4% in March compared to 3.21% in the preceding month. The March CPI remains below the Reserve Bank of India's median target of 4%.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices fell for a second day on expectations peace talks between the US and Iran may resume and eventually release supply from the key Middle East producing region. Brent crude futures fell 0.37% to $94.44 a barrel after falling 4.6% in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.04% to $90.33 after dropping 7.9% the session before.

Dollar

The US dollar lingered near six-week lows as signs of another round of US-Iran talks lifted risk appetite. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six units, was at 98.109, near its lowest in over six weeks. The euro was at $1.1793, while Sterling was at $1.3574. The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.88 per US dollar.