Overnight Developments: Global Markets, US GDP, and Iran Tensions Impact Indian Stock Market

Indian Stock Market Expected to Open Higher on Friday

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Friday, following gains in global markets, as investors assess the fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire deal. Asian markets traded higher, while the US stock market ended higher overnight, amid hopes of peace talks between the US and Iran.

On Thursday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower after a dent in hopes of a ceasefire in the US-Iran war and renewed inflationary fears amid rising crude oil prices. The Sensex crashed 931.25 points, or 1.20%, to close at 76,631.65, while the Nifty 50 settled 222.25 points, or 0.93%, lower at 23,775.10.

Market analysts expect the focus to shift to domestic company earnings and sectors impacted by surging crude prices. Ankur Punj, MD & Business Head at Equirus Wealth, noted that valuations of domestic equities are now extremely favorable and risk reward is tilted towards high equity exposure. Any positive news will see a good upswing movement from the domestic market.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

Key Global Market Cues for Sensex Today

Asian markets traded mostly higher on Friday amid cautiousness over the fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.65%, while the Topix was flat. South Korea's Kospi rallied 1.68%, while the Kosdaq gained 1.14%. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures indicated a higher opening.

US Stock Market

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

The US stock market ended higher on Thursday, as ongoing negotiations toward a peaceful resolution to the US-Iran war helped ease worries. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 275.88 points, or 0.58%, to 48,185.80, while the S&P 500 gained 41.85 points, or 0.62%, to 6,824.66. The Nasdaq Composite closed 187.42 points, or 0.83%, higher at 22,822.42.

Key stock prices moved as follows: Nvidia stock price gained 1.02%, Amazon shares jumped 5.6%, AMD share price rallied 2.08%, Apple stock price rose 0.61%, Microsoft shares fell 0.34%, and Tesla stock price added 0.68%.

US-Iran War and Global Economy

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that Iran would not allow the US and Israel to escape consequences for what he called their aggression. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump appears to be questioning how effective the ceasefire halting the Iran war really is.

The US GDP increased at a downwardly revised 0.5% annualized rate, according to the third GDP estimate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 0.7% pace in the fourth quarter. The advance estimate had put GDP growth at 1.4%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth would be unrevised at a 0.7% rate.

US inflation increased as expected in February. The personal consumption expenditures price index climbed 0.4% after an unrevised 0.3 gain in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index rising 0.4%. In the 12 months through February, PCE inflation advanced 2.8%.

TCS Q4 Results

TCS' net profit jumped 28.7% to ₹13,718 crore from ₹10,657 crore, QoQ. Revenue increased 5.4% to ₹70,698 crore, while USD revenue rose 1.5% QoQ to $7,621 million. EBIT grew 5.8% QoQ to ₹17,870 crore, while EBIT margin improved to 25.3% from 25.2%, QoQ. Attrition rate increased to 13.7% from 13.5%, QoQ. TCS also announced a final dividend of ₹31 per share.

Crude Oil Prices and Other Commodities

Crude oil prices rose following attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures gained 0.87% to $96.75 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were up 1.06% at $98.91 a barrel.

Gold prices fell, but were headed for a third weekly gain. Spot gold price fell 0.2% to $4,757.27 an ounce, while silver prices fell 0.1% to $75.29 an ounce.

The dollar was heading for its largest weekly drop since January. The US dollar index lost 1.3% so far this week. The euro traded at $1.169, while Sterling shot up 1.8% this week and above $1.3424. The Japanese yen was at 159.2 to the dollar and South Korean won was at 1,478 to the dollar. China's yuan sat at 6.83 per dollar in offshore trade.