Crude Oil Prices Surge Amid US-Iran Conflict

Key Figures:

• $112 per barrel: Brent crude price on Monday
• $98.75 per barrel: US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price on Monday
• 56%: Increase in crude oil prices over the past 30 days
• 2.27%: Gain in US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price in the previous session
• ₹9,360 per barrel: Crude oil price on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)
• 17%: Impact on Qatar's LNG export capacity due to Iranian strikes

Market Analysis:

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The ongoing US-Iran conflict has led to a significant disruption in global energy supply, resulting in a sharp increase in crude oil prices. Brent crude prices have jumped by over 60% since the beginning of the conflict, climbing to around $112 per barrel on Monday from nearly $70 per barrel at the start of the conflict.

Supply Disruptions:

The crisis has disrupted critical supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—a key conduit for global crude trade. The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and is a vital shipping lane for oil exports. Additionally, strikes by Iran have damaged vital facilities, impacting nearly 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity.

Global Outlook:

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Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 average price forecast for Brent crude to $85 per barrel from $77, while also increasing its outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $79 per barrel from $72. The firm also expects Brent crude to average $110 per barrel in March and April.

Technical Outlook:

Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities, believes that if tensions ease and Hormuz remains open, we could see a sharp reversal in energy and risk assets. However, as long as the threat of disruption or closure persists, the risk premium can expand further. Banerjee noted that technically, Brent holding above $100 keeps the bullish structure intact, with $120 as a key resistance—above which prices could extend toward $130-135 in a continued escalation scenario.