Nifty Surges 250 Points Amid Optimism Over US-Iran Deal, Oil Prices Fall Below $100

Indian Markets Poised for Strong Opening on Monday

The Indian stock market is set to begin the week on a positive note, with the Sensex and Nifty expected to gain over 1 percent, tracking a sharp rise in GIFT Nifty and a rebound in global risk appetite. The GIFT Nifty is currently trading at 23,945 in early morning trade, up 254 points or 1.07 percent, indicating a firm start for the Indian benchmark equity indices.

This positive indication comes after the benchmark indices ended modestly higher in the previous session. The Sensex rose 231.99 points or 0.31 percent to 75,415.35, while the Nifty gained 64.60 points or 0.27 percent. However, both indices had surrendered a large part of intraday gains, with the Sensex and Nifty falling from session highs of 75,810.97 and 23,835.65 respectively amid profit-booking.

Global Sentiment Improves

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Global sentiment has improved sharply over the weekend as signs emerged that the US and Iran may be moving closer to a framework agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. Asian equities have climbed on Monday, with MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index rising about 1 percent and Japan's Nikkei surging 2.8 percent. US stock futures are also higher, with Nasdaq futures gaining 0.89 percent and S&P 500 futures advancing 0.6 percent, reflecting improved appetite for risk assets.

Oil Prices Fall Below $100 a Barrel

The biggest relief for markets came from crude oil. Brent crude futures have dropped below the psychologically important $100-per-barrel mark, falling 4.55 percent to $98.83 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude declined 4.73 percent to $92.03. The sharp fall reflects expectations that a diplomatic breakthrough could eventually restore normal oil flows from the Gulf region, though negotiations remain unresolved and restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz continue.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

India's Economy to Benefit from Lower Oil Prices

Lower oil prices are particularly significant for India, the world's third-largest crude importer, as they ease concerns over inflation, the current account deficit, corporate input costs, and pressure on the rupee. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened at the start of Asian trade, while gold prices rose more than 1 percent as investors reassessed the outlook for inflation and global growth amid the evolving geopolitical situation.

Impact of Fuel Price Hike

Back home, investors will also monitor the impact of the latest fuel price increase. State-owned oil marketing companies raised petrol prices by Rs 2.61 per litre and diesel prices by Rs 2.71 per litre from Monday, marking the fourth hike this month as retailers attempt to recover losses incurred during the recent surge in global crude prices.

Market Analyst's View

According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, Indian markets are likely to begin the week with a cautiously optimistic bias as easing crude prices and improving diplomatic signals support sentiment. He said that Brent crude has retreated sharply into the low-$90s, reducing concerns around inflation, import costs, and corporate profitability, while the rupee has also recovered from recent record lows.

From a technical perspective, Ponmudi said Nifty remains range-bound but with a mildly positive bias. Resistance is seen in the 23,800-23,900 zone, with a breakout potentially opening the door towards 24,000-24,200. Immediate support is placed near 23,600. The Bank Nifty faces resistance around 54,200 and support in the 53,600-53,500 zone.