Nifty Projected to End 2026 with 10-15% Gain, Q4 Market Forecast Remains Stable

Market Outlook: Green Portfolio PMS

Key Takeaways:

• Divam Sharma, Co-Founder and Fund Manager at Green Portfolio PMS, expects the Nifty 50 to end 2026 with at least a 10-15% return.
• Despite global cues and geopolitical tensions, Sharma remains constructive on the Indian market.
• The impact of US-Israel-Iran tensions on Indian corporates is likely to be limited in the near term, unless crude prices sustain significantly higher levels.

Market Analysis:

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The ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict is creating short-term volatility across asset classes, including equities, crude oil, currencies, and safe-haven assets. However, Sharma believes that India's macro stability will not be significantly impacted, provided crude oil prices remain stable.

Investment Opportunities:

Sharma sees opportunities emerging in manufacturing, defence, and selectively in IT, particularly among companies pivoting toward AI-driven services. Investors should focus on balance-sheet strength, earnings visibility, and long-term competitive positioning rather than broad thematic exposure.

Crude Oil Prices:

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Sharma does not foresee Brent crude sustainably rising above $90 per barrel in the short term. Global supply chains remain relatively diversified, and major oil-producing nations are unlikely to allow an uncontrolled price spike that disrupts global growth.

Economic Impact:

A sustained rise in crude prices would complicate the policy environment, potentially pushing central banks into a more complicated growth-versus-inflation trade-off. Central banks may choose to remain cautious and delay decisive rate actions, balancing inflationary pressures from higher energy prices against potential growth slowdowns.