Nifty Points Towards Weaker Start Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Rate Hikes and Oil Price Volatility; 8 Stocks to Watch

Indian Stock Market Rallies on Wednesday, Despite US-Iran Tensions and Elevated Oil Prices

The key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market finished higher on Wednesday, with the Nifty 50 index ending 182 points higher and the Sensex up by 609 points. The benchmark indices bounced back sharply from the previous day's losses, with the Realty and FMCG indices outperforming, rallying over 1.75%. However, intraday profit booking was seen in selective PSU Banks and Media stocks.

The market's short-term outlook remains positive, despite the escalation in the US-Iran war and the US Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The Gift Nifty index has opened to the downside, signalling a gap-down on Dalal Street. The Gift Nifty live chart is currently trading red, down over 65 points from yesterday's close of 24,256.

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

Hariprasad K, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, expects the Indian markets to open on a muted note, with Gift Nifty indicating a flat start around the 24,150 zone. While domestic indices are holding near key levels, the broader setup remains fragile, shaped by elevated oil prices, global uncertainty, and a high-impact event calendar.

The US Federal Reserve's decision to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the third consecutive policy, given the persisting uncertainty due to the US-Iran conflict, has been met with a mixed reaction. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was his last meeting as the chairman, as his term expires on 15 May.

US-Iran Conflict Escalates

The US President, Donald Trump, has rejected Iran's latest proposals, as they did not address their nuclear program. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio ruled out any deal that excludes Iran's nuclear program, telling Fox News in an interview that "We can't let them get away with it." The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent gas prices soaring and could cause further damage to the world economy.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Oil prices soared on worries about prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East war, while Wall Street's stock indexes finished little changed on Wednesday ahead of high-profile earnings reports and after the Federal Reserve, divided, kept interest rates steady but muddied the outlook for easing.

Gold and Silver Prices Rebound

Gold and silver prices rebounded on Thursday from a one-month low set the day before, helped by a softer US dollar, though elevated oil prices kept fears of inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates alive. The COMEX gold rate today is oscillating around $4,588/oz, while the COMEX silver rate today is around $73 per ounce.

Volatility remains elevated but not extreme, with India VIX hovering near 17.4, indicating a moderate risk premium still embedded in the market. While not at panic levels, it continues to keep option premiums relatively expensive, suggesting traders remain cautious.

Q4 Results 2026

Earnings will drive stock-specific action, with Adani Enterprises, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti Suzuki India, and CEAT Limited providing recent earnings momentum. Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 and Sensex today, Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said, "We are of the view that the short-term trend is still in a positive zone, but a fresh uptrend rally is possible only after the index surpasses 24,215/77800 or the 50-day SMA."

However, Chouhan said, if the index falls below 24,100/77200, market sentiment could turn negative. Below this level, the index could slip to the 23,900-23850/76500-76300 range.

Stocks to Buy Today

Market experts have recommended the following eight buy-or-sell stocks for intraday trading: Cochin Shipyard, J&K Bank, ICICI Bank, HAL, ONGC, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, HBL Engineering, and Hero MotoCorp.