Nifty 50, Sensex Outlook: Experts' Predictions for Indian Stock Market Trade on May 12

Indian Stock Market Likely to Extend Losses Amid Rising Crude Oil Prices

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Tuesday, following a cautious trading session on Monday. Rising crude oil prices have sparked concerns about the domestic economy, leading to a decline in investor sentiment.

The trends on Gift Nifty indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index, with the Gift Nifty trading at around 23,646, a discount of nearly 222 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. On Monday, the Indian stock market extended losses for the third consecutive session, with the Nifty 50 slipping below 23,900. The Sensex crashed 1,312.91 points, or 1.70%, to close at 76,015.28, while the Nifty 50 settled 360.30 points, or 1.49%, lower at 23,815.85.

Sensex and Nifty 50 Predictions

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Sensex Prediction

According to Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities, the Sensex closed below the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) support zone, forming a bearish candle on the daily charts. As long as the Sensex trades below the 50-day SMA (or 76,500), a weak formation is likely to continue. On the downside, the correction could extend till 75,500 - 75,300. On the flip side, a move above 76,200 could lead to a technical pullback up to 76,400 - 76,500.

Nifty 50 Prediction

Nifty 50 index formed a strong bearish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, indicating sustained selling pressure across the session. According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the Nifty 50 is now placed at the lower end of a broader high-low range of 23,800 - 24,500 levels. Any bounce back from near the support of 23,800 could open further upside in the near term.

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Bank Nifty Prediction

Bank Nifty index ended 870.65 points, or 1.57%, lower at 54,439.90 on Monday, forming a bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and a lower low, signaling extension of the decline for the second session in a row. According to Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the Bank Nifty index is trading below its key moving averages, which are gradually sloping downward, reflecting a weakening trend. Going ahead, the zone of 54,100 – 54,000 is likely to act as immediate support for the index.

Derivatives Segment

In the derivatives segment, significant call writing was observed at the 23,900 and 24,000 strikes, while put writing was concentrated at the 23,800 and 23,600 levels, suggesting a broader trading range with a cautious to bearish bias. The India VIX jumped nearly 10% to close around 18.50 levels, and any sustained move above the 20 mark could further increase nervousness among market participants.

Key Levels to Watch