Nifty 50 Plunges: Bears Target 24,000 as Oil Prices Surge Past $110 Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions

Market Outlook and Strategy

Benchmark Indices: Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty

The market is expected to remain cautious with volatility on the higher side, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a surge in Brent crude oil prices above $110 a barrel. This has resulted in a weakness in momentum indicators and the benchmark index trading decisively below long-term moving averages.

Nifty 50

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The Nifty 50 is expected to decisively break 24,300, the previous week's support, and move down toward 24,000. Resistance is placed at 24,500-24,700. On March 6, the Nifty 50 tumbled 315 points (1.27 percent) to 24,450, while the Bank Nifty plummeted 1,273 points (2.15 percent) to 57,783, with market breadth favouring bears.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, the Nifty 50 has witnessed a vertical decline, which has distorted the near-term price structure. On the weekly chart, an upward-sloping trendline connecting the August 2025 swing lows and February 2026 swing lows has been breached, confirming a "Head and Shoulders" pattern breakdown. The RSI on both the daily and weekly charts has started trending lower, indicating rising negative momentum.

Strategy

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• Sell Nifty Futures on a bounce around 24,700, with a stop-loss of 24,850, targeting 24,200-24,000.
• Sell Nifty Futures around 24,550 with a stop-loss of 24,700, targeting 24,300-24,100.

Key Resistance and Support

• Key Resistance: 24,700, 24,850
• Key Support: 24,300, 24,000

Market Sentiment

The market remains firmly in a sell-on-rallies regime, reflecting aggressive short positioning by bears. The next major downside magnet lies near the unmitigated weekly demand zone, where price could gravitate if selling pressure persists.