Nifty 50 Expected to Reach 29,000 by March 2027, According to Emkay Research

India Equities Remain Constructive Amid Ongoing Global Volatility

Emkay Global has maintained its Nifty 50 target of 29,000 for March 2027, citing the country's domestic macroeconomic resilience, improving earnings trajectory, and policy support as key drivers of long-term growth. The target implies an upside potential of nearly 23% from Tuesday's close.

According to Emkay Global's latest India Strategy report, while near-term volatility may persist due to the prolonged Middle-East conflict and continued pressure on global energy markets, India's structural growth drivers remain intact. The brokerage firm has retained its FY27 Nifty EPS estimate at ₹1,230, with earnings growth expectations holding at nearly 13%.

Indian equities have recently lost some valuation support, with the Nifty 50 currently trading at around 19.2x FY27 forward earnings, close to its five-year long-term average valuation. However, Emkay Global believes that any sharp correction driven by global concerns should be viewed as a tactical buying opportunity rather than a structural risk to India's long-term growth outlook.

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The report noted that India's earnings resilience, policy support, easing domestic inflationary pressures, and ongoing capex investments continue to provide a strong foundation for Indian equities. Emkay Global's Head of Research & Strategist, Seshadri Sen, emphasizes that while global geopolitical developments and elevated crude oil prices may create intermittent volatility, India's structural growth drivers remain intact.

Comparison of Earnings Growth Outlook

Emkay Global believes that markets are still under-pricing the potential earnings recovery expected over FY27 and FY28. The report noted that despite prevailing concerns, the earnings growth outlook for Indian corporates remains robust, with expectations of nearly 14% growth over the next two financial years.

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The brokerage firm remains overweight on sectors such as discretionary consumption, materials, industrials, and real estate, while maintaining an underweight stance on financials, energy, healthcare, staples, telecom, and technology in the near term.

Key Risks and Challenges

A key concern highlighted in the report is the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, particularly the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has now remained shut for over eleven weeks. Emkay's macroeconomic scenario analysis indicates that if Brent crude sustains at $100 per barrel, India's current account deficit could widen to 2.4% of GDP compared with the pre-shock baseline estimate of 1.3%. At the same time, GDP growth could moderate to 6.3% from the baseline estimate of 7%, while CPI inflation may rise to 4.6%.

In an extreme scenario where crude oil prices surge to $130 per barrel, GDP growth could decline further to 5.5%, while inflation may rise to 5%, significantly increasing pressure on policymakers and household consumption. Emkay Global stated that sustained high energy prices create a "four-way drag" on the economy by impacting inflation, corporate profitability, government finances, and consumer spending simultaneously.

Despite these near-term risks, Emkay Global remains optimistic about India's broader economic recovery trajectory. The report emphasized that several domestic policy measures continue to provide meaningful support to growth and consumption, including income tax cuts, GST reductions, and cumulative RBI rate cuts of nearly 125 basis points since February 2025.