Nifty 50 Outlook

The benchmark Nifty 50 is expected to remain in a range of 23,700-24,300 in the short term, with traders closely tracking the developments of ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran. The elevated VIX keeps the bulls at risk.

Key Levels

• Key Resistance: 23,950, 24,000
• Key Support: 23,700, 23,550, 23,400

Read also: Treasury Yields Experience Largest Increase in Two Weeks Following Release of Labor Market Data

Market Analysis

On March 11, the Nifty 50 dropped 395 points (1.63 percent) to 23,867, while the Bank Nifty fell 1,215 points (2.13 percent) to 55,736, with market breadth favouring bears.

Technical Analysis

The Nifty 50 has been forming a consistent pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms since February 3, clearly signalling a prevailing downtrend. Selling pressure emerges on every minor rise, reflecting a lack of conviction among market participants. The index now trades approximately 5 percent below its 200-day EMA and nearly 6 percent below its 100-day EMA, underscoring the strength of the ongoing bearish phase.

Read also: US-Iran Tensions Spark Uptick in Oil Prices Amid Global Market Decline

Trading Strategies

• Sell Nifty Futures below 23,850, with a stop-loss of 24,050, targeting 23,500.
• Sell Nifty March Futures at around 23,930, with a stop-loss of 24,075, targeting 23,750.
• Sell Nifty Futures around 24,150 with a stop-loss of 24,250, targeting 23,950.

Bank Nifty Outlook

The Bank Nifty has been significantly underperforming the frontline indices over the past few trading sessions. The ratio chart of Bank Nifty versus the Nifty has been in a steady decline since March 2.

Key Levels

• Key Resistance: 56,000-56,300
• Key Support: 54,500-54,200